Tensions between India and Pakistan over Jammu and Kashmir have flared in recent days after 28 Indian tourists were killed last week near the picturesque town of Pahalgam by Islamist militants from the Resistance Front. The attack is the latest bloody incident in a long-running territorial dispute over the region.
For India, Jammu and Kashmir is an integral part of the country, justified by the fact that the ruler of these territories (then princely states) acceded to India in 1947. India is demanding that Pakistan vacate the territories it illegally occupies, namely Azad Jammu and Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan.
Following the killing of 28 tourists on April 22, the situation on the border between India and Pakistan has been deteriorating. New Delhi and Islamabad have been deploying reinforcements to the Line of Contact over the past week, and local armed clashes have already begun. The Pakistanis are shelling Indian border posts and observation posts, and the Indians are actively returning fire. In addition to short-range weapons, both sides are also using anti-tank missiles and mortars. Artillery and multiple rocket launchers are being used sporadically by both sides. This is the first time since the 1998 Kargil fighting that India and Pakistan have come so close to a full-scale conflict.
For now, New Delhi and Islamabad are not showing any prudence and for many analysts a new Indo-Pakistani war is becoming increasingly likely. However, due to territorial and other circumstances, this is rather unlikely. The reasons are analyzed below.
It is known that the conflict between India and Pakistan has been going on for decades, with the goals of the parties involved remaining unchanged. New Delhi and Islamabad know that they cannot strategically defeat the opposing country, divide its territory or overthrow its government. It is simply about controlling the territory of the former princely state of Jammu and Kashmir, a disputed region divided between three countries. India holds 60%, Pakistan holds 30% and the remaining 10% is controlled by China.
The issue of disputed territories cannot be resolved militarily, the main factor in the non-military solution is the complex geographical and natural conditions in the region. Starting from the coast of the Arabian Sea, almost the entire length of the India-Pakistan border is mountainous and sparsely populated. The lowlands begin only near the Indian provinces of Punjab and Himachal Pradesh and the Pakistani city of Lahore. In the north, this region merges into the foothills of the Himalayas, between which the disputed territories are located. Thus, Jammu and Kashmir is in a valley over 5,000 meters high surrounded by mountain ranges, a valley where India, Pakistan and China meet. It is also important to know that there are only a few passable roads into Jammu and Kashmir from the Indian, Pakistani and Chinese sides, with very low capacity for military vehicles.
This means that in the Jammu and Kashmir valley, it is extremely difficult to conduct offensive operations, as small military forces can entrench themselves in the highlands and prevent the enemy from penetrating deep into the area. Thus, the only way to recapture the disputed territories is to isolate and cut off the enemy forces. However, for such a plan to be implemented, the battles in the triangle of Punjab, Himachal Pradesh and Lahore must be won. These operational and strategic assumptions cannot be questioned.
Studying the previous Indo-Pakistani wars (1947, 1965, 1971 which resulted in the creation of Bangladesh and 1999) and according to military analysts, India (if there is a general war) will try to break the defenses of the Pakistani armed forces in the Lahore area and advance further west towards Islamabad, Abbottabad and Rawalpindi. In this case, the Indian army will be able to take control of all the main roads connecting Pakistani territory with Jammu and Kashmir. Only after this, will they be able to proceed with the attack on the disputed territories.
The Pakistani army in the first phase will try to stop the attack of the Indian forces on Lahore and create conditions for a counterattack. In the second phase, it will counterattack on the flanks of the advancing Indian forces and invade the Indian state of Punjab. In the third phase, the Pakistani armed forces complete the defeat of the Indian forces and invade from Punjab into the neighboring province of Himachal Pradesh. As a result, the Indian garrison in Jammu and Kashmir is cut off from the main Indian territory and is subsequently defeated.
Pakistan borders Afghanistan and Iran on land, two countries that are hostile to Islamabad. Pakistan also borders China. The border region stretches across the Himalayas at high altitude. Since 2016, Beijing has been building an ultra-high-capacity transport corridor as part of its New Silk Road project. With the arrival of Chinese capital, Pakistan has become a loyal ally of Beijing. Over the past nine years, the share of Chinese weapons systems in the Pakistani army is estimated at 60 to 70 percent, with Turkey also holding a high share. In a possible military conflict with India, Beijing will certainly provide comprehensive assistance through the transport corridor, as Turkey will through air transport. To isolate Pakistan, India would have to attack China’s transport infrastructure. This would mean an immediate armed response from China. New Delhi is apparently not considering this option.
But what about the nuclear weapons that both countries possess?
The two countries have approximately the same number of nuclear warheads, namely 180-190 nuclear warheads of 45 kilotons for the Indian army and 170-180 for the Pakistani one. Both countries have land, sea and air nuclear payload capabilities. According to military analysts, the two countries will not use nuclear weapons routinely for massive attacks on cities and industrial infrastructure, they will use them to penetrate the opponent’s solid defenses. The Indian side is counting on the use of nuclear weapons to penetrate the Pakistani defenses near Lahore. In turn, the Pakistani armed forces expect to repel the Indian attack with their own nukes and then use their own.
But the consequences of a nuclear war play a crucial role in the eventual retreat of both sides. This is also the main reason why the two sides have not gone to full-scale war in five decades, despite periodic clashes along the Line of Contact. Nuclear deterrence may once again prove effective in de-escalating the current conflict.
We should also take into account that Pakistan is going through a very fragile political, economic and social period in its history. The country is in political turmoil following the ouster and arrest of popular Prime Minister Imran Khan in 2023. The economy is in shambles, and the government faces a renewed threat from the Pakistani Taliban, amid rising tensions with Afghanistan. The main force holding Pakistan together is the military and the powerful Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) secret service.
India faces its own challenges, despite being in a more stable position. The Modi government has marginalized minority groups, especially the country’s Muslim population. But income inequality is growing, with the richest 1% of the country owning 58% of the wealth. India’s economy is the fifth largest in the world, about 10 times the size of Pakistan’s, bringing in more resources for the military. However, India’s defense spending still amounts to less than 2% of its gross domestic product, which military experts describe as inadequate, with the government forced to focus on the vast needs of the country’s vast population.
No country can afford a war at this time, especially one with potentially catastrophic consequences.
Considering all the aforementioned circumstances, a war between India and Pakistan, despite India’s apparent superiority, has a predetermined dynamic, namely that it would result in a bloody confrontation with insignificant results for both New Delhi and Islamabad.
