With 99% of the votes counted, Justin Trudeau’s successor as Liberal leader, Mark Carney, appears set to be the country’s new Prime Minister. Based on figures from the Canadian Ministry of Interior, Carney, like his successor, will not have an absolute majority in the country’s Parliament as he has 168 seats with the limit for absolute control of Parliament being 172.
In addition to the centrist Liberals, however, Polivière’s Conservatives also showed a significant increase in seats, essentially dividing the electorate in the country at the expense of all the smaller parties that lost most of the popular support recorded in the polls until January.
Polivier’s Conservatives may be significantly increasing their “numbers” compared to the 2021 elections, but it seems that in yesterday’s elections in Canada, the people sent the message that this is not an “ordinary” electoral battle but an informal “referendum” with the main question being “do we remain an independent country or do we become the 51st state of the USA”.
The results make it clear that Canadians continue to support their absolute autonomy and even gave a resounding personal message to the leader of the opposition – Polivier – who lost his parliamentary seat… despite the fact that his party – which significantly identified with Donald Trump’s political positions – increased its percentages.
But what does the Liberals’ election victory mean?
Initially, it is clear from the statements of Mark Carney himself, who succeeded Justin Trudeau as party leader last March and has also served as interim Prime Minister until the election, that Canada will not remain indifferent and silent in the face of Donald Trump’s US economic tariffs. Carney has made it clear that he and the country are open to dialogue with the US President for an agreement, but will not remain indifferent to the 25% that the US has imposed on some of the country’s most important export products. Carney has also emphasized that Canada is today closer to the rest of the world than to the neighboring US and has not ruled out the possibility of an immediate dialogue on economic agreements and “opening up” to both Europe and China. The former banker with a career in both the US and Europe seems to have already made the first contacts, as evidenced by the congratulatory telegrams from the European Commission and Beijing (an unusual move for China) a few minutes after Carney’s first speech to the Canadian people.
On a second level, Canadians, who until the end of January gave a 20-point difference to Polivière’s right, decided to support, after Trudeau’s departure from the spotlight, the party that clearly stood in favor of the country’s independence, despite the fact that even today they have significant objections to specific policies – mainly economic ones. For this very reason, it seems that they did not trust Canada’s fate completely in Carney’s hands and did not give him an absolute majority. In Canada, minority governments traditionally do not seem to be able to stay in power for more than two years, and this is the message from the Canadian people to the new Prime Minister: “You don’t have much time.”
Despite the increase in percentages (over 7 compared to the 2021 elections), there should be concern in the opposition. Polivier, whom Trump has publicly supported, does not seem to be even being elected as an MP from his district, and identifying with specific positions, especially on immigration and the economy, with the American President, cost him dearly. Given that, the Conservatives will exercise opposition with their several seats, but they will also be judged harshly by Canadians who do not want to become an American state and, if they had a choice, would not want close relations, especially in the next three years, with their closest neighbor.
The elections in Canada show something else. Donald Trump, with 100 days in the Oval Office, has managed, in addition to causing global upheaval, to even turn electoral processes into informal “referendums” with citizens having to choose between candidates and policies that are contrary to or close to his own doctrine. Canada, with its choice, is sending a clear message to Washington that the coming years will not be “friendly” even if this means difficult choices and sanctions.
