“I am a fighter, I will not let myself be excluded like this,” Marine Le Pen declared on the TF1 television network, a few hours after her conviction in a first-instance court for embezzlement of European funds, which seems to be radically changing the political landscape in France.
“I will ask for the decision on the appeal to be taken” before the 2027 presidential election, she stressed of her immediate five-year electoral ban, “allowing me to consider a candidacy” for the Élysée.
The Paris Court of Appeal announced that it “will examine the file” within the stipulated time limits and will be able to issue its decision “in the summer of 2026.”
In the meantime, Le Pen’s rhetoric about a “political decision” and a “violent attack on democracy” has begun to resemble that of current US President Donald Trump, during his trials during the US election campaign.
So much so that many in France are now wondering whether the leader of the French far-right will fully follow the “playbook” of Trumpism, with the “backing” of Washington and European far-right partners.
She herself is already denouncing the “politicization” of Justice, and the systemically “normalized” far-right National Rally – an evolution of the National Front, which received a “dowry” from its anti-Semitic father, gave it a communications “facelift” and is today the largest single party in the French National Assembly – is calling for “peaceful mobilizations.”
Obviously, Jean-Marie Le Pen’s 56-year-old daughter has a lot on her mind, and it’s certainly not an admission of guilt and the early end of her political career.
Especially when, after three unsuccessful bids, she was considered the favorite to succeed outgoing President Emmanuel Macron in 2027 and a central figure in the far-right’s onslaught in Europe.
First on her list does not seem to be – at least not yet – the so-called “Plan B”, with the passing of the “baton” of a presidential candidacy to her young, popular, but politically inexperienced “chosen one”, Jordan Bardella.
“It’s a huge asset for the movement, I’ve been saying it for a long time, but I hope we won’t have to use this asset sooner than necessary,” Le Pen told TF1 about 29-year-old Bardella, the long-time president of Le Pen’s far-right National Rally.
Now in France, a new multi-front war of political attrition is beginning, with the Le Pen far-right playing the “card” of the victim of the elites and the establishment, while attempting to “bridle” its electoral base.
Marine Le Pen remains the elected president of the current parliamentary group of the National Rally, which holds Macron’s minority government politically “hostage”, imposes part of the far-right agenda on the Right and “fishes” for protest and working-class votes.
Taking advantage of the fact that new parliamentary elections cannot be called until June – in which case Le Pen would not be able to run again – the Le Pen far-right could well immediately provoke a new political crisis, with a motion of no confidence against the current government under François Bayrou – already the fourth in France in a year – in the midst of a geopolitically difficult situation for Europe, due to the Ukrainian crisis.
He is expected to mercilessly sideline the current French prime minister for the fact that he is also facing charges of embezzlement of European funds by politicians from his centrist MoDem party. In a case heard in 2024, Bayrou was acquitted for lack of evidence, but the Paris prosecutor appealed the decision, insisting on his guilt. A trial date has not yet been set.
At the same time, an investigation is underway with similar charges against Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s France Insubordinate, without charges having been filed.
Perhaps not coincidentally, Bayrou expressed “concern” about Le Pen’s electoral exclusion – provoking chain reactions inside and outside the Macron camp – and Mélenchon commented that “the decision to remove an elected official should be taken by the people”.
That said, the 2027 presidential elections – if they are held then and under the existing constitutional conditions – already seem distant, the race for the Élysée is wide open and the political landscape of France is fluid and cloudy, with characteristics of poisonous polarization and visible signs for the Fifth Republic of an increasingly deep crisis, from which it still remains unknown who will ultimately emerge the winner.
