Donald Trump won yesterday, Tuesday night, against his opponent Nikki Haley in the primary election of the Republican Party in New Hampshire (with 54.2% of the vote, compared to 43.7% for Haley, with 75% of the votes counted) strengthening his position as the right-wing favorite and moving even closer to his party’s anointing for the November presidential election (please read the analysis titled “For the Republican anointing: Trump clear victory with 54.6% in New Hampshire to Haley’s 43.2 %“). Here are five conclusions from this poll:
1. Trump the invincible?
No Republican, who has won both the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries, has ever lost his party’s anointing. Bolstered by this fact, Donald Trump has a strong wind.
Especially since for now his court troubles don’t seem to have an impact on his popularity. Criminally charged in four cases and sued for defamation, the former president regularly appears in court between campaign rallies.
All eyes are now on Nevada, where Trump says his victory is assured, and then, next month, South Carolina, where Nikki Haley was governor and where Trump leads by around thirty points in the polls. polls.
Each of the 50 US states will have a say in the lengthy primary process, but it is possible that Republicans will have their candidate as early as April, or even earlier.
“I say the election starts tonight,” said Vivek Ramaswamy, who ran for the Republican presidential nomination before aligning himself with Trump, hinting at a showdown with President Joe Biden.
2. Haley isn’t giving up
Nikki Haley conceded defeat but insisted she is “a fighter”. And “this race is far from over,” he added. However, her position is precarious. She came in third in Iowa, and in New Hampshire she’s a dozen points behind the real estate mogul.
Her sponsors are in danger of abandoning her and forcing her to resign.
3. A choleric speech
Despite welcoming a “great night”, Donald Trump delivered a speech full of anger, calling the United States a “bankrupt country” and attacking a Nikki Haley who refuses to pledge allegiance to him.
He also railed against immigration and gas prices and claimed – without elaborating – that Haley may soon be the target of an “investigation”.
He finally promised to take revenge on those who angered him. “I don’t get too angry, I reciprocate,” he snapped.
Nikki Haley’s campaign team soon hit back at his “angry” and “incoherent” speech. “If Trump is doing so well, why is he so angry?” she asked.
4. Detailed polls
Exit polls have revealed details about Republican voters, raising questions about Donald Trump’s ability to mobilize voters beyond his most ardent supporters.
These latter support him no matter what. When asked if he can become president even if he is found guilty of a crime, 87% said yes.
But among Haley’s supporters, who are more moderate, only 12% gave the same answer.
86% of Trump supporters also said they don’t think Joe Biden won the 2020 election, compared to 13% of Haley supporters.
5. Biden wins without being on the ballot
Joe Biden also scored a victory yesterday, Tuesday, in New Hampshire: he won the Democratic primary without his name even on the ballot, due to a disagreement by the local party organization regarding the election schedule.
And while Donald Trump and Nikki Haley were dueling in this northeastern US state, he was campaigning in Virginia to defend abortion rights. An issue that is expected to be central to the presidential election.
He accused the 77-year-old tycoon and his supporters of wanting “at any cost” to further restrict access to voluntary abortion.
After the New Hampshire vote, the president said Trump would likely be the Republican nominee. “The stakes could not be higher. Our democracy. Our individual freedoms (…). Our economy (…). Everything is at stake,” he wrote.
