The Arctic is of strategic importance to both the Russian Federation and China. This region is particularly important to Russia because of its natural resources and the way Russia has built up its nuclear deterrent capabilities. The defense of the northern bastion and access to the Atlantic will remain crucial to how Russia understands the country’s security. Russia wants to be the dominant player in the Arctic. At the same time, Moscow sees its position in the region as more vulnerable than it was a few years ago.
Military activity by allies in the Arctic and the Far North has increased, while the Russian authorities are inviting new players into the political arena, in particular, the BRICS countries. In addition to Russia’s justified distrust of its allies’ military activity, a more complex set of players is now entering the scene, with the US’s open intention to control Greenland. This increases the risk of misunderstandings, accidents, and escalation of conflict.
Military forces from the Kola Peninsula have been redeployed to fight in Ukraine, significantly reducing Russia’s land power in the region. Since the conflict in Ukraine, the Northern and Baltic Fleets have become more important in projecting Russia’s naval power in the north, as well as in the Atlantic and Baltic regions. This means that naval forces will have a more central role in Russia’s strategic and conventional deterrence, as well as in its strategic communication with NATO.
As Russia’s conventional land power is engaged in operations, its strategic forces become more important. With its proximity to NATO’s core regions, the Northern Fleet has many of these forces at its disposal.
China also has an interest in establishing a political, economic, and, in time, military presence in the Arctic. Recent investments in polar capabilities, including icebreakers, have given China the opportunity to operate more independently in the region. For example, China’s economic presence in Greenland is already significant.
The development of the Northeast Passage for commercial transport will reduce shipping times to European markets, reduce dependence on other transport networks and facilitate the transport of raw materials. Chinese entities have shown interest in developing infrastructure related to this shipping route in Norway as well.
Furthermore, the Arctic already plays an important role in China’s space programs, both politically and militarily. Beijing will continue to seek access to Arctic infrastructure to support its space activities. So far, China has not conducted military operations in the region, but the ability to conduct military operations in the region is a long-term strategic goal.
The American President has openly stated that it is unacceptable for the US to let China and Russia create “friendly” territories and economic and military infrastructure in Greenland, which he considers a vital area for the US.
Paradoxically, the US, as well as NATO and the EU, do not think in the same way when discussing Ukraine, which is a vital area for the Russian Federation…
