The two Summits of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, held last week in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, were a particularly serious event – not only because they defined how Beijing will face the serious economic challenges ahead, but also because of the extraordinary presence of Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who powerfully impressed himself on the collective consciousness of the Global Majority, presenting China as the main source of stability in this extremely turbulent geopolitical juncture, proclaiming that it stands firmly “on the right side of history.”
So let’s start with Wang Yi’s key points – which, in effect, set the tone for Beijing’s diplomacy throughout 2025.
- On US-China relations, Beijing is ready to work with the Trump 2.0 administration on the basis of mutual respect.
- However, “if the US continues to restrain China, we will respond decisively.”
- It is “absolutely possible” for the US and China to become partners. But “No country should imagine that it can suppress China and at the same time maintain good relations with it.”
- The Global South is a “driving force for maintaining world peace, promoting global development and improving global governance.”
- These developing countries, which account for over 40% of global GDP, “hold the key to the world’s stability and improvement.”
- Wang Yi stressed once again that China is a “natural member of the Global South.”
- The Russia-China relationship is “mature and resilient,” and “will not be affected by any developments or third parties.”
- Wang Yi described Beijing’s stance as “objective and impartial” – and, most importantly, did not call on Europe or Ukraine to participate in the upcoming US-Russia negotiations.
- His main message – which reflects Russia’s analysis: “Security is mutual and equal; one country’s security cannot be built on the insecurity of others.”
- Regarding Gaza, he pointed out that there can be no Chinese support for Trump’s “Gaza Riviera Resort and Casino” plan: “Gaza belongs to the Palestinian people.”
- And “changing its regime by force will not bring peace, but new chaos.”
- Beijing supports Egypt’s peace plan. Once again, Wang Yi stressed that “the root of the vicious circle of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict lies in the fact that the two-state solution has only been half implemented.”
- Wang Yi praised the EU-China “ability and wisdom” to “deepen strategic dialogue and mutual trust.”
- Beijing, at least in theory, believes that Europe could become a reliable partner.
- However, the EU and the European Commission (EC) in Brussels may have other – more confrontational – intentions.
- Wang Yi got straight to the point, referring to the manipulation of the Philippines by “external forces”: “Provocations and violations will have the opposite effect, and those who act as pawns of others are doomed.”
- He then stressed that the situation in the South China Sea remains “stable” because China and ASEAN want it to remain that way.
- Wang Yi stated categorically that “Taiwan has never been a country (…) It has not been in the past and will not be in the future.”
- Furthermore, “Taiwan’s pursuit of independence is doomed to fail, and using Taiwan to contain China will be a futile effort. China will achieve reunification.”
Made in China 2025 at super speed
Let’s now focus on China’s extremely complex internal equation.
Premier Li Qiang has called on the entire nation to meet a series of “very demanding” targets, including 5% growth by 2025 (last year it was 4.9%).
Essentially, to revive the economy, Beijing will issue bonds worth 1.3 trillion yuan (about 182 billion US dollars).
The deficit-to-GDP ratio has been set at around 4%. The official “opening up” policy will extend to the internet, telecommunications, healthcare and education sectors – which means more opportunities for foreign investors and potential partnerships across the entire industrial supply chain.
All of these moving parts of the ambitious Made in China 2025 technology plan will be accelerated to the max: artificial intelligence, smart terminals, the Internet of Things, 5G, as well as a new mechanism for “future industries” that will support high-tech sectors such as biomaterials manufacturing, quantum technology, embedded intelligence and 6G.
Premier Li enthusiastically praised the role of regional growth drivers, such as the Greater Bay Area – the cutting-edge technology hub in Guangdong province that is linked to Hong Kong.
As expected, he praised the “one country, two systems” model and the deeper economic integration of Hong Kong and Macau.
Undoubtedly, this is the best analysis, but also because it offers a clear Chinese assessment of the “three forces” behind Trump 2.0:
- Wall Street
- Heavy industrial capital (energy, steel, mining)
- Silicon Valley
CK Hutchison Holdings, founded in Hong Kong by notorious tycoon Li Ka-shing, was effectively forced to sell 80% of Hutchison Port Group, a subsidiary that owns 43 container ports in 23 countries, including 90% of the Balboa and Cristobal terminals at either end of the Panama Canal – due to tough geopolitical pressures.
- However, Hutchison will continue to control its ports in China, including Hong Kong.
- President Trump made a huge fuss about the deal, which was led by BlackRock.
- In Hong Kong, however, the approach was more pragmatic.
- Hutchison had no intention of engaging in a grueling legal battle in US courts – let alone facing potential sanctions. Thus, he preferred to proceed with a “strategic exit.”
Seeking shelter from the coming storms
Premier Li said that consumption in China is now “slow” and, somewhat euphemistically, that there are “pressures on job creation and income growth.”
In response, comes a promised “dynamic boost” to domestic demand, along with the creation of 12 million new jobs, with an emphasis on young university graduates and migrant workers.
At the same time, Beijing will increase its military budget by 7.2% in 2025, to about 1.78 trillion yuan ($245 billion) – a sum that remains small compared to the Pentagon’s budget.
It is particularly illuminating to see the proposals of the Two Summits – and Wang Yi’s tone-setting – in relation to the analysis of a distinguished Asian thinker, such as the former Singaporean ambassador to the UN, Kishore Mahbubani.
Mahbubani, as usual, invokes Sun Tzu, explaining how Chinese leaders have always preferred to win without engaging in military conflicts.
What matters is the coordination of expansion – cognitive, educational, economic, industrial, technological, scientific, financial, diplomatic and military – in the light of deterrence.
China will not fall into the trap
The basic principle is that Beijing will not be trapped in any provocative and arrogant move by a potential Trump 2.0. Once again, the issue is coordinated planning and expansion.
A case in point: The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) – a think tank funded in part by the Australian military and which holds strongly anti-Chinese and anti-Russian positions – has at least done something useful: it developed a Critical Technology Tracker that tracks 64 critical technologies.
Their latest report (August 2024) shows that between 2003 and 2007, the US was a leader in 60 of the 64 technologies, while China was a leader in just 3. But look at what happened between 2019 and 2023:
- The US led in just 7 technologies
- China led in 57 – including semiconductors, gravity sensors, supercomputers, quantum technology and space launches.
All of this is inextricably linked to the successful planning and achieved goals of Made in China 2025 – a program based on two consecutive five-year plans since 2015.
China 2025: Strategic Investment and Global Partnerships
In 2025, China will focus on serious investment and extensive partnerships with the entire Global South. In an approach reminiscent of Sun Tzu adapted by Bruce Lee, Beijing will use a potential Trump 2.0 – along with its mix of confrontation, competition and occasional negotiations – as a springboard to expand its global influence even further.
This may have been one of the unspoken meanings of the phrase Xi Jinping told Putin in Moscow two years ago: “Changes we haven’t seen in a century.” Beijing will find shelter from the storm – any storm. And all this without having to fight a single conventional war.
