An additional 6.7 million people are expected to be displaced around the world by the end of next year due to war and violent conflict, the Danish Refugee Council said on Friday march 13, (“Global displacement crisis set to surge by 6.7 million people due to ongoing conflicts and civilian attacks: New DRC forecast“) as aid cuts from key donors such as the United States take effect. The UN refugee agency said last year that the number of forcibly displaced people worldwide had surpassed 117 million and warned that the number could rise.
Families forced into displacement by war and conflict. These are not cold statistics. These are families forced to flee their homes, with little to nothing and in search of water, food and shelter,” said Charlotte Slende, Secretary General of the Danish Refugee Council, in a statement.
Twenty-seven countries account for almost a third of all global displacement. The forecast is based on an artificial intelligence model that predicts displacement trends by analyzing over 100 indicators, including factors such as security, politics and the economy in those countries.
It predicts that nearly a third of the new displacements will come from Sudan, already the world’s worst refugee crisis after nearly two years of war. Another 1.4 million people are expected to be forcibly displaced from Myanmar, the report said.
US foreign aid cuts
US President Donald Trump is cutting billions of dollars in foreign aid programs worldwide as part of a major overhaul of spending by the world’s largest aid donor.
The Danish Refugee Council is one of the aid groups hit, with more than 20 contract terminations.
The cuts by Washington and other key donors are already affecting refugees.
The UN refugee agency said funding shortfalls have closed programs to protect teenage girls from child marriage in South Sudan and a safe house for displaced women at risk of death in Ethiopia.
“Millions of people are facing hunger and displacement, and just when they need us most, rich nations are cutting aid. This is a betrayal of the most vulnerable,” said Slente.
The situation in Sudan
The humanitarian crisis appears to be under control in Sudan, with a large part of the population directly affected.
“This is not just one crisis, but a multi-crisis that affects every sector, from health and nutrition to water, education and protection,” Catherine Russell, executive director of UNICEF, told Security Council ambassadors.
Since the war between former allies-turned-rivals, the Sudanese Army (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and allied militias broke out in April 2023, tens of thousands of civilians have been killed and more than 12 million have been forced to flee their homes – some 3.5 million as refugees in neighboring countries.
Fertile farmland has been decimated, famine has been declared in several areas, and critical infrastructure – including hospitals – has been destroyed or abandoned in the fighting, the UN says.
Alarming developments
Children bear the brunt of the violence. UNICEF has received alarming reports of grave violations against children, including killings, sexual violence and forced recruitment into armed groups.
Between June and December 2024 alone, more than 900 cases of grave violations of children’s rights were recorded, with 80% involving killings or mutilations.
Children in Sudan are enduring unimaginable suffering and horrific violence. When I was last in Sudan, I met families and children living this nightmare. Their stories are heartbreaking – and they demand immediate action.
She recounted horrific accounts of rape, warning that an estimated 12.1 million women and girls – and increasingly many men and boys – are now at risk of sexual violence, an 80% increase on last year.
The figures give us only a glimpse of what we know is a much larger, more devastating crisis.
Aid delivery challenges
Despite the enormous need, humanitarian organizations face serious challenges in delivering aid in Sudan.
Bureaucratic and administrative obstacles, as well as fluid front lines, have made access unpredictable. Humanitarian workers are increasingly at risk of extortion, attacks and assassinations.
More than 770,000 children are expected to suffer from severe acute malnutrition this year, many of them in areas cut off from humanitarian aid.
Without life-saving assistance, many of these children will die. She called on the UN Security Council to pressure all parties to allow unhindered access for humanitarian assistance, especially through key border crossings.
Global action needed
She called for the immediate protection of children and the basic infrastructure they depend on for their survival and for accountability for those responsible for violations, especially sexual violence.
She also called on the Security Council to help ensure humanitarian access so that aid can reach those in need without delay, and called for an end to military support to the warring parties.
She cited the need for increased funding, noting that UNICEF alone needs $1 billion to provide life-saving assistance to 8.7 million vulnerable children.
Without these urgent actions, this crisis will further engulf Sudanese society and the suffering will increase exponentially, resulting in a generational catastrophe that threatens the future of Sudan, the region and beyond.
