International shipping is entering a period of uncertainty due to tariffs imposed by new US President Donald Trump on steel and aluminum, with Supramax ships, which have transported two-thirds of all seaborne steel to the US in recent years, likely to be hit hardest.
Trump’s decision to impose a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports marks a significant shift in US trade policy, further intensifying tensions in the global market.
Trump’s tariffs and the side effects on shipping
Effective from March 4, 2025, these new tariffs will apply universally, including key suppliers such as Canada, Brazil, Mexico and South Korea, eliminating previous exemptions and quotas.
This bold move is intended to protect domestic US industries, but it risks sparking a multi-front trade war that could disrupt global trade and shipping flows, according to shipping broker Xclusiv.
The impact of these tariffs on maritime trade is already becoming apparent. As the deadline for the tariffs approaches, it is estimated that there may be an increase in US imports of steel and aluminium, with companies rushing to stockpile these metals in anticipation of the new tariffs.
Demand and the course of exports
This increase in demand could temporarily increase freight rates for ships carrying these materials. But if the tariffs go into full effect, countries such as Brazil, a major supplier of steel to the US by sea, could see a significant reduction in shipments.
Countries such as Japan and South Korea, which are also major exporters, are expected to adjust their strategies in response. This change, Xclusiv notes, could alter demand for certain types of ships, particularly those used to transport steel and other metals.
New chapter in US trade policy
With potential disruptions to steel trade, Supramax and Panamax vessels are likely to face reduced demand. At the same time, Trump has also hinted at imposing additional tariffs on products such as cars, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, particularly targeting countries such as Japan, South Korea and the European Union.
In conclusion, notes the shipping brokerage Xclusiv, Trump’s tariff increases on steel, aluminum and potentially other sectors mark a new chapter in US trade policy, with significant implications for global trade, shipping and international economic relations.
As retaliation from other nations becomes increasingly likely, the global shipping industry faces a period of heightened uncertainty, with volatile trade dynamics and the possibility of further disruptions to global trade flows.
