The situation worldwide is unprecedented. Diplomacy has changed. Diplomatic “types” have been abolished. Market expressions in the public sphere are in abundance. Regardless of whether one likes or dislikes Trump and everything he expresses and represents, the way in which he does so has opened the gates of a new political “culture”. Despite the fact that journalistic exaggerations in practice prove to be… exaggerations, the only thing certain is that we have entered an era of violent adjustments.
The most careful and experienced observers of international developments are still extremely sparing in formulating categorical assessments. One interpretation of Trump’s behavior is that it is precisely these characteristics of his personality that allow for a peculiar behavior, which also has a negotiating content. As the American president, not to be outdone by his well-known toxic personality, the goal is to “convince” everyone that he is capable of carrying out what he threatens.
Usually the truth lies somewhere in the middle. Trump cannot control his tongue and he is not crazy not to understand the consequences of what he says. That is, not to understand that it is not possible to mess with everyone and everything. Therefore, his behavior falls into the category of a calculated strategy of “rationality of irrationality”, well-documented in strategic theory.
The reason for this is an indirect response to the irrationality recorded in the reaction from all sides. From “the USA forgetting its allies” and leaving Europe, to “giving victory to the bloodthirsty dictator Putin”. The most likely scenario is that a new balance will soon be formed. Of course, neither will Trump transform into an ordinary political leader, nor will his opponents go to the other extreme. Some conditions for coexistence will simply be formed, while there will also be changes in the leadership of countries.
The unknown priority and the indication
But where does this whole game end? If we had a clear picture of what Trump’s ultimate goal is, that is, what is the priority he has set according to which Washington will manage the international balance, perhaps then the behavior being displayed today would be more understandable.
Perhaps we should be more suspicious of the order to cut the defense budget by 8% by 2030. This expenditure is directly related to the role of the United States in the world, especially the competition with Russia and China. And the priority in rebuilding the economy that emerges as a sensation, fits in with the broader stance in favor of finding a strategic modus vivendi with competitors.
Meanwhile, another interpretation of extreme toxicity seems equally convincing: Those who considered the pre-Trump scenario to be “controlled” have every reason to go to extremes of rhetoric. Beyond the issue of substance, there is also a fear of paying a serious price by the political elites who served the previous situation.
The rise of the “New Right” in Western societies is proof of the difficult position they were already in. Trump’s rise is a “child” of similar social processes within the United States, and given the country’s special importance in international affairs, the “nervousness” is understandable.
However, it has never been a secret that the positions supported by Trump and Biden on the role of Ukraine in Europe’s security architecture were diametrically opposed. In short, the advocates of a Ukraine as a “buffer state” between the West and Russia on the one hand, and the fanatical supporters of the restoration of a Cold War, with the ultimate goal of regime change in Moscow on the other.
In other words, the center has always been the management of relations with Russia, as a battle between “I want” a change of leadership and “I can”! The variations of possible developments are numerous. But the turbulence is violent, as always happens when the pendulum has moved violently to one extreme. Until it balances in a reasonable fluctuation, the passage to the other extreme is simply inevitable. As are the serious turbulences. And this is the most dangerous period…
Trump has already shown, through the selection of individuals in various parts of the world, that he intends to shuffle the deck in all regions of the planet. It is also known that he does not usually tolerate “opposition” to his choices. And the man’s psyche is a guarantee that the strategy of coercion will be on the agenda.
If, as is heard and estimated, the Balkan front is going to concern us in the near future, what ensures that there will not be an attempt to violently close fronts further down in the eastern Mediterranean? Gaza gives a foretaste, regardless of what will ultimately happen. With a fundamental difference, however. Those interested in the region include several powerful economic factors that have objective influence on the Trump administration, although the corresponding influence of Israel is out of competition.
In Trump’s worldview, the focus of every “settlement” is business.
