On December 30, 2024, the U.S. Department of the Air Force submitted to Congress a report titled “The Department of the Air Force In 2050” which describes the security environment and nature of warfare in 2050, expected advances in technology, and the composition of the Air Force and Space Force.
According to the report, by 2050, “remotely controlled” warfare could be a reality. Success in this type of conflict will require a mix of advanced sensors, other sources of information, secure communications and Artificial Intelligence (AI) to support decision-making, and its conduct will depend on capabilities in space and cyberspace. “Nothing will happen, no matter how complex, without a reasonable chance of being perceived and understood,” it states.
The trend in the US (and the West in general) to rely on increasingly expensive systems of exceptional capabilities in small numbers will need to be reversed. Also, the trend to make major combat platforms self-sufficient, lethal and able to survive independently will be replaced by the distribution and networking of capabilities across multiple systems. This will lead the adversary to develop systems and weapons designed to deny, destroy, or counter distributed capabilities.
In terms of technology, the report believes that the current US competition with China, and to a lesser extent Russia, for military technological superiority will not significantly change by 2050. The report focuses on examining seven technology areas:
1. Artificial Intelligence (AI)
It is expected that well before 2050 it will dominate a variety of military functions and capabilities through its use in advanced decision-making systems and decision support tools. In air and space, decision dominance will depend on AI, while in Cyber and Electronic Warfare, its dominance will be total.
2. Autonomy
It is estimated that 2050 will be the norm on land, sea, air, space, where systems are already largely autonomous, and the electromagnetic spectrum.
3. Computing & Sensors
Quantum computing and quantum sensors are at early and different stages of maturity. The former could fundamentally change cryptography. Quantum sensors could defeat many current encryption technologies, including stealth technologies.
4. Arms
Long-range precision weapons that will be launched from land, sea, air and space will exist in 2050. “There will be no refuge from these weapons,” it is stated characteristically.
5. Space technology
The revolution in reducing the cost of launch and space systems will continue in conjunction with the rapid development of commercial technologies.
6. Energy
In weapon propulsion (liquid or solid fuels), a gradual, evolutionary path is considered possible until 2050, while in military operations, which mainly involve mobile platforms, some form of mobile source will be required.
7. Biological sciences
The ability to manipulate genetic material exists and could lead to significant military developments in the next 25 years, such as: increased human performance, through biological “manipulation” or human-machine cognitive integration, development of new materials through biological processes, and most worryingly, biological weapons designed for specific targets.
