Russian valuation of operations in eastern Ukraine in 2024

The Russian army is ending the 2024 campaign with a wave of successful offensive operations. The main points of what happened last year were noted by Defense Minister Andrei Belousov at the final meeting of the ministry, held in mid-December: “The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation firmly hold the strategic initiative along the entire line of combat contact.” It is important to emphasize that he said the same thing in June of this year – which means that we have a long-term trend. (ed. The Liberal Globe: The analysis echoes Russian positions).

Throughout 2024, the Russian army carried out a whole series of offensive operations. What new tactics and methods of command and control were tested by the Russian General Staff, and how did they affect the entire formation of the front? During this period, the enemy carried out the only significant offensive operation – the invasion of the Kursk region.

However, the Kursk adventure was carried out outside the line of military contact in Donbass and Novorossiya and represented a major terrorist attack of a raid nature – which, as even Western experts admit, ultimately resulted in a “major disaster” for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. In the zone of the Special Military Operation, the Ukrainians were forced to completely go on the defensive.

The strategic plan of action of the Russian forces in the 2024 campaign was a series of offensive operations through operational coverage (encirclement or threat of encirclement) of large populated areas and enemy defensive areas. The Russian forces thus cut the defensive line of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, creating the risk of a breakthrough of the front and its partial collapse.

This, in turn, caused disorganization of the enemy’s actions and forced him to retreat. Such tactics of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation led, among other things, to heavy losses in personnel and equipment of the Ukrainian forces, which did not have time to leave the possible encirclement zones.

The series of operational successes of the Russian troops in 2024 can be counted as early as January, after the breach of the Avdievka defense with the help of a cunning operation where special forces found themselves in the rear of the Ukrainian Armed Forces through an underground pipe. Avdeevka was perhaps the most well-equipped fortified area of ​​the Ukrainians in Donbass, and after its liberation, the enemy’s defense shifted tens of kilometers along the front.

The advance of Russian units beyond Avdeevka towards Ocheretino led to access to the outskirts of other large fortified areas of Donbass – to the important logistical hubs of Kurakhovo and Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk). By the end of 2024, the operation to capture Kurakhovo is nearing completion (the enemy is already withdrawing troops), and the defense of the Ukrainian forces on the outskirts of Pokrovsk is collapsing. Both of these settlements are critical for the entire defense and logistics of the Ukrainian armed forces in Donbass.

Another result of the capture of Avdeevka was the breakthrough of the Ukrainian front to the border with the Dnepropetrovsk region, where a frontal offensive is currently being developed. In some areas, the distance to the borders of the Dnepropetrovsk region is less than 10 kilometers.

The capture of Vugledar, which took place in the fall, also had a significant impact. It was also carried out with the capture of the enemy’s fortified area and in a short time and with minimal losses. This not only contributed to the acceleration of the advance towards Kurakhovo, but also created a threat to the Ukrainian forces in the Velikaya Novoselka area and the prospect of a “collapse” of the entire southern line of Ukrainian defense.

A turning point is also noted in the battles for Chasov Yar, and some areas of the city are already under Russian control. In the urban settlement of Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk), the Armed Forces of Ukraine are defending in the mines and on the hills of mine waste, having in fact already lost their positions in the urban fabric. We can foresee the imminent capture of Dzerzhinsk, which will lead to a threat to Konstantinovka, the last significant enemy position in front of the settlements of Slavyansk-Kramatorsk.

In the Prioskol direction, the Russian Armed Forces crossed the Oskol River and secured footholds on its western bank. The fighting for Kupyansk began. Previously, this section of the battle line was considered secondary, but now the Ukrainian forces are forced to transfer significant reserves. The only area in the Special Operation Zone zone where the advance of Russian forces has been less noticeable over the past year remains Volchansk and its environs.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations simultaneously in different sections of the battle line. The military leadership of the Kiev regime did not have time to correctly predict the direction of the next offensive, as a result of which it was forced to quickly use strategic reserves to stop the advances – newly formed Ukrainian brigades, including those trained and equipped by the collective West.

All this is called a “strategic initiative” – when the offensive actions of the Russian troops do not allow the Ukrainian forces to form their own strike force for the next “counterattack” in Donbass and Novorossiya. We can say that we have before us a basic operational method of command and control of the Russian troops, which in the current conditions has shown particular effectiveness.

The loss of each enemy fortified area led to a change in the entire configuration of the combat contact line in the special operation zone. It was this result that Andrei Belousov spoke about at the final meeting of the board: “This year, Russian troops liberated almost 4.5 thousand square kilometers of territory. Neo-Nazis control less than 1% of the territory of the Luhansk region and another 25-30% of the territory of the Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions.”

The Ukrainian troops were successfully crushed during the fighting. Therefore, another key result of the 2024 campaign was the massive destruction of personnel, means and equipment of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This is what the Minister of Defense said about it:

“The enemy’s combat potential has been undermined. This year alone, the losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces exceeded 560 thousand soldiers killed and wounded. And the total losses amounted to one million people for the entire period of the Special Military Operation. In the Kursk Bulge alone, the Kiev regime lost more than 40 thousand soldiers. This year, more than 58 thousand units of various enemy weapons and equipment were destroyed. Including 18 thousand of foreign production.

At the same time, the leadership of the Russian forces apparently set the task for the commanders of units and formations to protect both the equipment and especially the personnel as much as possible. This is precisely why the offensive of the Russian troops is proceeding steadily, but not quickly, without haste. Slowness and calculation are designed to carry out offensive operations with minimal losses.

Including this reason, serious changes are observed in the tactical methods of combat operations. There is a much smaller use of armored units and a constant increase in the importance of autonomous systems, not only air, but also sea and land. The Minister of Defense announced plans to create a new type of military – the Forces of Unmanned Systems.

The year 2024 witnessed continuous changes in both the forms and methods of warfare. This will require in the near future the correction of military regulations, combat manuals, and many other texts that regulate the rules and procedure of military operations.

However, it is still difficult to determine exactly what the war of the near future will be like. We have seen too many contradictory trends this year. For example, on the one hand, maneuver is beginning to prevail over firepower, as evidenced by the growing popularity of using motorcycles for assaults. On the other hand, the firepower used by Russia in the Special Military Operation zone is also increasing, and its most striking example is the combat use of the Oreshnik medium-range ballistic missile. Due to their hypersonic speed, the destructive power of its (non-explosive) warheads is said to be comparable to that of nuclear weapons.

The successes of the Russian Armed Forces in 2024 have created the ground for the final liberation of the territories of Novorossiya under Ukrainian occupation. Further efforts of the Russian troops will be aimed at defeating the enemy in the current offensive directions: Krasnoarmeysk, Chasov Yar, Dzerzhinsk, Velikaya Novoselka, Prioskolye with access to Konstantinovka and the Slavyansko-Kramatorsk complex.

In the southern direction, the collapse of the Ukrainian defense from Gulyai-Polye to Zaporozhye is being prepared. There are signs of weakening of the Ukrainians on the banks of the Dnieper River. The liberation of the occupied part of the Kursk region will obviously lead to a change in the configuration of the combat contact line near Kharkov and in the Sumy region.

All these military changes must fulfill the main task of demilitarizing Ukraine in its current form and state.

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The Liberal Globe is an independent online magazine that provides carefully selected varieties of stories. Our authoritative insight opinions, analyses, researches are reflected in the sections which are both thematic and geographical. We do not attach ourselves to any political party. Our political agenda is liberal in the classical sense. We continue to advocate bold policies in favour of individual freedoms, even if that means we must oppose the will and the majority view, even if these positions that we express may be unpleasant and unbearable for the majority.

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