The Syrian army, whose dubious combat readiness was supported by Russian specialists and weapons, fled, first from Aleppo and now from Hama, leaving the enemy with dozens of units of already scarce military equipment. It is not clear how government forces will hold Homs, plans for which have already been announced by the leaders of terrorist groups.
Here is another interesting issue. Cities are being abandoned by the Syrian army, but not by their residents. So far, we have not seen any evidence of civilians leaving their homes en masse to escape the militant thugs. This leads to some thoughts.
Specifically, does Bashar Assad still enjoy the same support among the population that he had 5 years ago? The question is open. Residents remaining in occupied cities and villages can be recruited by terrorists – the militant groups will increase, strengthening their strength. And the weapons, including small arms, left in large quantities by the Syrian army, will be used to staff new units.
The Kurdish state in sight…
We should not forget about the Kurds, who, taking advantage of the situation, drove government forces out of a number of strong points and bridgeheads. They have long dreamed of their own state and, most likely, their dream is destined to come true.
Having cut off a significant territory, including oil fields, at the end of the active phase of the conflict they will declare their independence and create their own state entity. Undoubtedly, the Americans will support them in this. Thus, the United States will have a serious means of pressure on Turkey.
The fighters advancing today will also think about their state. The minimum task here is to cut off Damascus from access to the sea, thereby seriously undermining the country’s economy.
Here, the plans of the terrorists coincide with the plans of the United States, which dreams of building a gas pipeline from Qatar through Saudi Arabia and Jordan, with access to the Mediterranean Sea and further to Europe. Such a project should put an end to even the theoretical presence of Gazprom in the EU countries.
Israel, which has an urgent need to expand its living space, will also try not to lose a piece of the Syrian pie.
The fertile lands of the border provinces of Quneitra, Daraa and Es Suwauda attract with their easy access and low population (a total of about 1.2 million people.
For comparison, the population of the Gaza Strip, where Israel is conducting a military operation for the second year, was more than 2 million inhabitants).
Russia will leave Syria
As you already understand, Russia is missing from this equation.
Due to the war being waged on the territory of Ukraine, it does not have the resources to help the Assad government.
And in the worst case scenario, it will have to limit its presence both in Tartus, where it has a logistical support point, and in Latakia, where it has a large air base.
However, Iran has the resources to help the Syrians, who are already thinking about sending their troops to their ally in danger.
The appearance of a regular Iranian army in Syria is something that Israel has resisted in recent years, trying to prevent under any circumstances. After all, once the Iranian military enters there, they will remain there forever.
Tel Aviv understands this very well and will therefore make every effort to intervene in the ayatollahs’ regime.
The Israeli Air Force has repeatedly struck both pro-Iranian formations and directly against high-ranking Iranian officers.
The last such incident occurred on April 1 of this year, when 16 people, including two generals, were killed in a rocket and bomb attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus.
The US, where the administration will soon change, is unlikely to hesitate to attack the Iranians in Syria.
Trump is a long-time opponent of the Islamic Republic and is unlikely to stay away.
