The first month of Israel’s war on Lebanon has left the country devastated on an unprecedented scale. The Israeli army is dynamiting entire villages, and Dahiyeh, a once-beautiful suburb in southern Beirut, is now a skeletal ruin. People’s homes, businesses and futures are being reduced to ashes under the onslaught of Israeli “Rampage” missiles.
Will they be able to rebuild their lives after the war?
During the 2006 conflict, Israel caused $2.8 billion in damage in just 34 days of fighting.
Now, the UN estimates that “the scale of the current hostilities, the humanitarian impact and the economic impact in 2024 are expected to be far greater than those of the 2006 war.”
Last week, caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati called on the international community to support the reconstruction effort.
But with the financial needs estimated at $20 billion, there is a serious risk that neither the world powers, who blame Lebanon’s hardline anti-Israel political class, nor Lebanon, which has collapsed economically, will foot the bill.
The Role of Hezbollah and Iran
Hezbollah claims to have spent $300 million on reconstruction, Nicholas Blanford, a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council, told The New Arab that: “the role of Iran and Hezbollah has been largely limited to providing financial aid to those in immediate need.”
At registration centers across Lebanon, Hezbollah officials handed out plastic-wrapped packages of $12,000 to those who lost their homes in the conflict to cover rent until the party can rebuild their homes.
Israel has targeted Hezbollah’s financial infrastructure, hitting branches of Al-Qard Al-Hassan, a bank affiliated with Hezbollah; Blanford believes “it’s unlikely Hezbollah keeps a lot of cash there, but we don’t really know the impact of the war on its finances.”
However, there will be enormous pressure on Hezbollah to provide for the welfare needs of its constituents, as without the continued support of the Shiite community, there simply will be no Hezbollah.
Hesitation in the Gulf
In the last war with Israel, Arab donors played a central role in rebuilding Lebanon. Qatar rebuilt four towns, while Saudi Arabia rebuilt 25 villages in southern Lebanon.
Hassan Kotob, a Lebanese analyst and director of the Lebanese Research Center, tells us: “The Arab states hoped that their support could show the Shiites the possibility of a political and economic future that would not be aligned with Hezbollah and Iran.”
“However, this support ultimately strengthened Hezbollah by showing that they could resist and have their homes rebuilt and their losses compensated,” Kotob adds. “So don’t expect the Gulf countries to make the same assessment this time, and at a much higher cost.”
Kotob’s views are confirmed after, just a few days ago, a French-led international conference in support of Lebanon raised $1 billion in pledges for humanitarian aid and military support, without any financial commitment from the Gulf.
To be sure, relations between the Gulf and Lebanon have been strained in recent years. Hezbollah has increasingly found itself at odds with Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, notably over its support for the Houthis during the 2015 Saudi intervention in the Yemeni civil war.
Mohammed Al-Basha, a US-based Middle East analyst, writes in an article for the Navanti research group:
“The era of multi-billion dollar aid packages from Gulf states without conditions is over. Due to the hierarchy, Riyadh’s priority is on domestic development and it is unlikely to commit significant funds to Lebanon’s reconstruction, as it did in previous eras. Also, the ongoing corruption and mismanagement in Lebanon make it hesitant to invest in Lebanon, especially in the absence of a reliable partner like Rafik Hariri.”
(former Lebanese prime minister. His son and heir to his political fortune, Saad Hariri, retired from politics in 2017 and is reportedly under house arrest by the Saudis, angered by his failure to confront Hezbollah’s influence)
Hesitation from the West
After the 2006 war, the international community supported the country’s reconstruction when France led a $7.2 billion package, most of which was for economic reforms that the government failed to implement.
During the recent conference, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called on Lebanon’s leaders to “take decisive action to ensure the proper functioning of state institutions.” Lebanon has been without a president for more than two years.
The collapse of Lebanon’s banking sector in 2019—which the World Bank derisively described as a “state-sponsored ponzi scheme”—caused the lira to lose 98% of its value and GDP to shrink by 28% over the past five years.
In 2022, the IMF agreed to a $3 billion bailout deal, which Lebanon was unable to access due to its failure to adequately implement the reforms stipulated in the deal.
So the crucial question remains: after years of political deadlock, economic collapse, a failed revolution, and a devastating port explosion, will Lebanon’s political elites finally realize the need for reform?
Existential risk
Will Lebanon finally be able to “build back better”? Beirut is said to have been rebuilt seven times. Through earthquakes, wars, economic collapse, and devastating explosions, the Lebanese have weathered the storm and then tried to rebuild their lives.
In the aftermath of the 2006 war, the state played a subsidiary role in relation to international actors and local organizations. This phenomenon was repeated after the explosion at the port in 2020, when once again public services seemed to be retreating and NGOs took over the reconstruction of neighborhoods.
Obviously, the responsibilities of the political establishment are great, since they are leading to the disappearance of Lebanon under the weight of the rising “greater Israel”.
With the state paralyzed and the international community demanding change, the reorganization poses an existential threat to Lebanon’s political elites, but let’s hope not to Lebanon.
