Among the world’s largest rice fields, Japan has rarely had problems with national rice stocks in the past. It is also deeply rooted in national culture and gastronomy.
With domestic average annual consumption at seven million tons per year, rice is considered a staple food item. It is on the table at every meal and dish. But now this little national “treasure” is starting to become scarce and the prices keep going up.
The official figures announced at the end of July by the Tokyo government left many with their mouths open.
Rice stocks last June were just 1.56 million tons, down even 20% year-on-year. These are the lowest levels since records began in 1999. Conversely, prices rose by 18% over last year, reaching a 30-year high.
Due to climate change – with hot weather and lack of water – crop yields have declined.
But paddy fields have also shrunk with the Tokyo government’s “blessings” as part of interventions against the backdrop of an aging population and over the years.
Amid tight supply, meanwhile, demand is growing. On the one hand, hyper-tourism, on which Japan is now betting financially, is put forward as the cause, with the demand for the national cuisine soaring from foreign visitors.
On the other hand, the timing of a national holiday in August with high temperatures, typhoons and the official warning of a possible mega-earthquake – after the 7.1-magnitude earthquake struck on August 8 – sent rice sales soaring.
Waves of panic buying and empty supermarket shelves are reported.
Change of data
As the most basic of all the aforementioned causes for the current shortages, the government cited
- the high temperatures
Last September – a milestone month for the rice harvest – was the warmest in 125 years.
- Another reason cited by the authorities is the tourist boom
Amid continued aging and shrinking population, which hampers economic growth, in the Land of the Rising Sun tourism has been considered for a decade as a new “steam engine” of growth.
Its unique culture – including its cuisine – was showcased internationally with large-scale advertising campaigns.
Thus, from 6.2 million tourists who visited Japan in 2011, this year they are expected to reach a record 35 million.
As traditional Japanese specialties based on the famous domestic rice – such as sushi, cakes or tea – became extremely popular with foreigners as well, increased consumption in restaurants contributed to the rise in prices.
- 40% of rice fields in Japan remain unexploited
For years, Japanese rice production – world-class – has faced major challenges, even without tourists or the climate crisis.
Determining factors are the aging population and labor shortage, urbanization, globalization and the agricultural policy that Tokyo has followed in recent years.
Young people who grew up in the countryside are increasingly drawn to cities, where they find better conditions for education, entertainment and employment.
As a result, the agricultural sector is struggling to find workers, and many rice farmers – especially those with small, unprofitable plots – are surviving on government support. The result is that 40% of rice fields in Japan remain unexploited.
- change is being recorded in the eating habits of mainly young Japanese, with a shift to bread and pasta
Vicious circle?
Farmers are traditional supporters of the right-wing Liberal Democrats, which have dominated Japanese politics for more than half a century.
Therefore, the government has pledged that the rice it imports compulsorily – based on World Trade Organization regulations – will not be made available for immediate consumption.
At the same time, government subsidies to domestic rice producers exceed 300 billion yen (about 1.85 billion euros) annually.
While the cultivation of rice varieties, which are more resistant to high temperatures, is now being promoted, authorities warn that supply problems of the staple food in the market are likely to continue into September, when the new harvest season begins.
“The shortfalls will be covered gradually,” said Agriculture Minister Testusi Sakamoto. “The rice harvest is growing steadily and farmers in some areas could start harvesting about a week earlier than usual.”
Autumn, meanwhile, begins from October, an important season for tourism in Japan. Experts are talking about a vicious circle, at least based on the current policy.
The essence of what is happening now
If farmers produced the same amount of rice as before, there would be a surplus, causing the price of rice to fall. This would have caused massive protests from the farmers.
To avoid this, production has been declining year-on-year and has been kept below half of the peak of 14.45 million metric tons per year.
The result is that when there is even a slight increase in demand, such as from inbound tourists, shortages quickly arise and prices rise.
Japan has continued this policy for more than 50 years. No other country has maintained a policy of reducing crop area for so long.
Meanwhile, India is the world leader in rice exports, with 10-20 million tons per year.
If Japan were to completely reverse its reduction in rice paddy area and export 10 million tons annually, it would not only become one of the world’s largest rice suppliers.
It could also contribute to global food security, but also create a sufficient reserve for emergency situations, such as e.g. in case of war in Taiwan.
