In the last 24 hours, the mobility on the Ukrainian front is very high. The escalation on the various fronts of Donbass is vertical, while inside Ukraine the situation from a political point of view looks particularly unstable, betraying a nervousness that could either presage more general developments or a generalized internal destabilization of the Zelensky regime, while safe predictions are precarious to make.
A while ago, it became known that the Russians hit the railway station in Lviv, which is the main hub for forwarding Western reinforcements to Ukrainian forces fighting in the east. This is a very serious development, always in the direction of escalation of conflicts.
The pressure from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is added to the picture, as it calls for an increase in taxation and a dramatic devaluation of the currency (hryvnia), as a condition for the continuation of financial support. This may weigh more than any other development, since Ukrainian society will further feel the consequences of the continuation of the war of attrition in the east. Developments are bound to be rapid.
Although it had been known since yesterday, the day began with the formalization of the resignation of the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Dmytro Kuleba, while three other ministers submitted their resignations, as informed by the Speaker of the Ukrainian Parliament Ruslan Stefanchuk and relayed by international news agencies. The other three ministers are: Strategic Industries Minister Oleksandr Kamushin, Justice Minister Denis Maliuska and Environment Minister Ruslan Strilets. The resignations will be considered by the body of the Parliament.
Let us remind you that the replacement – in essence, the dismissal – of the head of the Ukrainian Air Force, Vice-Captain Mykola Oleschuk, had preceded this, after the loss of the first F-16. Ukrainian President Zelensky may have later denied that there was any connection, but he was not very convincing. And the expulsion, gave food to the suspicions that the loss was either due to friendly air defense fire, or the aircraft was lost on the ground, as reported by other sources.
The consequences of Kursk
In any case, all this is happening after the daring invasion operation in the Kursk region of the Russian Federation. Much has been written about Ukrainian motivations. But almost all sober observers, in East and West, agreed that the risk Zelensky was taking in approving the operation was too great and the dynamics that would be created were potentially uncontrollable.
What is currently certain, is that the Ukrainian invasion acted as an “accelerator” of the developments. The attack “crumpled” the image of the Russian president internally and this has led to a major escalation of vindictiveness. The aim is also to prevent any thought of retaking “Kursk-type” initiatives by the Ukrainians. The question is whether Ukraine, in its current state, can absorb this escalation without a collapse of the fronts…
In the last 24 hours, according to data provided by the Ukrainians themselves through the Facebook page of the General Staff, Russian forces launched attacks on a total of 11 fronts, which led to 207 engagements with Ukrainian forces. The focus of Russian actions is on the Pokrovsk (claimed to have repulsed 61 attacks) and Kurakhov (repulsed 50 attempted advance) fronts, as half of the attacks by Russian forces were recorded there.
In addition to operations at Kursk, four attacks occurred at Kharkiv, nine engagements at Kupiansk, nine engagements with the Russians reportedly repulsed at Liman, and five at Shiversk. In the Kramatorsk region, the Ukrainians claim to have repulsed eight Russian attempts to advance on the critical points of Chasif Yar, Klisivka and Andriivka. Russian attacks were supported by air power. Attacks occurred on at least three more fronts in Donbass.
Risk of forehead displacement
In the end, as it turns out, the Ukrainian expectation that the invasion of Kursk would relieve the defense in Donbass did not come true. The weakening of the Ukrainians in the east of the country gives an advantage to the Russian forces, which have not been reduced, since they are advancing simultaneously on several fronts almost along the line of confrontation, and the Ukrainian forces that functioned as a reserve – “reinforcement scare” of the Ukrainian defense, have been trapped in Kursk, which the Russians don’t seem to be too concerned with at this stage.
Russia is currently threatening fortress cities whose eventual capture will mean shifting the front much further west. In particular, it seeks to occupy Uglendar, Pokrovsk (a crucial hub for the logistical support of the Ukrainians), Toretsk, Chasif Yar – while continuing the strikes towards Kupiansk.
If the Ukrainian forces continue to languish in Kursk without advancing, while the missile and drone strikes continue, the Zelensky regime, which appears from the mass resignations-removals of ministers to be in turmoil, will lose the confidence of the Ukrainian elite and society, with unpredictable developments.
According to a source of The Liberal Globe who systematically observes the developments on the Ukraine front, in order for this not to happen something or some or all of the following will have to happen:
- the Ukrainian forces to pin down the Russians and prevent them from advancing at least to Pokrovsk and Toretsk
- the Ukrainians to push deeper into Kursk
- Kiev to successfully invade another border region of Russia.
- to achieve impressive strikes inside Russian territory, in response to Poltava – This will also depend on the supply or not of long-range missiles from the West and of course their release for use.
- Of course, there is one last scenario, which a few months ago we would have considered unlikely, but today certainties have “died”: Military forces from NATO countries, especially from Poland and the Baltic Republics, to take an active part in the Ukrainian defense. If this happens, however, developments could take a different turn and the escalation could be unprecedented.
Nightmare scenarios
What is certain is that the war has now picked up pace. And the invasion of the Ukrainians in Kursk does not allow the Kremlin to continue the same slow-moving tactic of wearing down the Ukrainian forces, both in relation to the needs of the war and for the image of the Russian leadership in society. The following days will be interesting and perhaps even decisive.
This threat of vertical escalation with the involvement of NATO countries is feared by the Kremlin and in an attempt to prevent the development, it declares through the representative Dmitry Peskov, that it is studying the revision of the nuclear doctrine of the Russian Federation. Many voices in the West speak of a bluff, resulting in leave no room for the Russians to use the arsenal—tactical nukes in the first instance—in an effort to avoid discrediting it. But this constitutes a rise on the ladder of nuclear escalation…
