When he visited Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kiev last month, UN High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi asked him a simple but very difficult question: how many Ukrainian civilians would be likely to migrate to the rest of Europe this winter if the Kremlin manage to destroy his country’s energy infrastructure?
That day the president, according to people briefed on the meeting, was unable to respond. Perhaps, no one can. Vladimir Putin’s goal, however, is now clear: to leave part of the Ukrainian population out in the cold in the coming months, making life even more difficult for the country’s citizens.
When Russian forces launched the first of seven airstrikes in three months on the power plants and distribution stations of Dtek, the Ukrainian electricity giant, it turned out to be Vladimir Putin’s plan. The company’s capacity has shrunk from 5,000 to 500 gigawatts – a 90% reduction – although Dtek hopes to rebuild almost 2/3 of its generating capacity within the year.
One step further
But yesterday the Kremlin’s strategy of keeping millions of Ukrainian civilians hostage in the cold went a step further. Russian missiles have recently been targeting the facilities and networks of Ukrenergo’s production and high-voltage cable group.
A reduction in electricity production could leave millions of Ukrainian citizens exposed to the cold, because modern buildings in cities are heated with electricity. A reduction in electricity supply also means strain on drainage systems and potential damage to buildings’ water pipes if the water freezes – causing the pipes to burst.
Well, what’s happening these days with major Russian attacks on infrastructure projects is nothing more than the second half of President Putin’s energy war: by targeting energy infrastructure he aims to push a million civilians or more into Europe when the winter and the temperatures drop. In other words, to use the cold weapon.
Much will depend on how many homes remain without heating in the next two months.
The main goals
Certainly in recent days the main targets of the attacks have been the gas transfer stations and the hydroelectric station near Kiev. Dating back to the days when the Soviet Union was headed by Nikita Khrushchev in the early 1960s, this plant creates a water basin of more than 900 square kilometers in area. Blowing up the dam would flood Kiev, risking untold casualties.
To reassure the citizens, the authorities of the Ukrainian capital hastened to point out that it would be impossible, with aerial bombardment, to retreat the reinforced concrete barrier twenty-two meters high and almost three hundred meters long. But no one could deny the damage (currently unspecified) to the hydroelectric plant that supplies the capital.
The military industry
The question now is whether Russia’s military industry will be able to produce enough new high-precision missiles and drones to hit many new targets to cripple the Ukrainian energy system in the coming months. He will certainly try, because one of the goals is to slow down the production of weapons in Ukrainian factories by depriving them of electrical supplies.
With the invasion of Kursk, Kiev troops now control the Gazprom station in Shuja for the distribution of natural gas in Central Europe: 14 billion cubic meters per year pass through this hub. Enough that the uncertainty has already caused gas prices to rise across the European market.
Allies divided over Zelensky’s Western weapons
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has stepped up calls for allies to lift all restrictions on the use of Western weapons against targets inside Russian territory after Moscow launched its biggest mass missile and drone attacks in Ukraine since Russia invaded in February. of 2022.
The UK and France want to allow Ukraine to strike military targets deep inside Russian territory, while the US and Germany oppose it.
The systems
Missiles with a range of up to 300 km have been delivered to Ukraine, but the West has stressed to the Ukrainians that they cannot use them to hit targets in Russia. These include the long-range version of the Army’s Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, and France’s Storm Shadow cruise missiles.
Kiev is asking for German-made Taurus missiles with a range of 500 km and a more powerful warhead. But Berlin has so far refused to hand them over. Ukraine is also asking for the right to use its recently arrived F-16 fighter jets – American-made it gets from Denmark and the Netherlands and soon from Norway and Belgium – to bomb targets in Russia.
Escalation risk
The Biden administration and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz are concerned about the risk of escalation if Western weapons strike inside Russia. “Of course, we are concerned about escalation,” Pentagon deputy spokeswoman Sabrina Singh said recently. “Just because Russia hasn’t responded to something doesn’t mean it can’t or won’t in the future.”
On the other hand, London has been arguing to Washington for months that Ukraine should be able to fire Britain’s Storm Shadows missiles at targets inside Russia, something Washington disputes. French President Emmanuel Macron in May backed Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory using French missiles. “We should allow the Ukrainians to neutralize military sites … from where Ukraine is being attacked,” he said, adding that the ban should apply to civilian installations.
Maybe in the end it’s just a matter of time because other times in the past the US has changed its stance, as although they refused at the beginning, they finally gave tanks and long-range ATACMS missiles. In fact, recently the Ukrainians used in their invasion of Kursk American Himars, with a range of about 40 km, as well as German, American and British combat vehicles.
