There are many analysts and officials in Washington who say that the US cannot continue to support Ukraine because it undermines the US’s ability to prepare against China. But if the U.S. must prepare for a possible future conflict with China, there are two areas in which the U.S. could fight it:
1. One is a world in which Ukraine loses. In this world, all of our European allies will focus on protecting themselves against the next attack from Russia. (more about this topic read the analysis titled “The militarization of the EU and its transformation into a war economy is the plan of the New Commission“). The US will be more isolated diplomatically because NATO’s European allies will be far more concerned about their own security than helping the US in a fight against China.
2. The other world is the one in which Ukraine wins. Next, we have a Ukraine that will be the largest and most capable military in Europe and will serve as a bulwark against Russian aggression. A victorious Ukraine gives the US a strong European presence in the east. There we have countries that are confident not only of their own security, but also of NATO’s collective ability to deter and defeat aggression. They will be more willing to side with the US if the US is at war in the Indo-Pacific. The idea that aid to Ukraine prevents us from preparing for war with China is wrong.
Ukraine needs to continue to be supported against Russia so that the US can take over and win its fight against China after a Ukrainian victory against Russia. This war, like the current US war against Russia on the territory of Ukraine, would be impossible without the help of the Europeans. It also goes without saying that the US aims to decisively weaken Russia, which in turn will weaken China, that is, the US wants to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia on the territory of Ukraine and crush it as a state. Afterwards, Russia will split into three states:
- the European Russian (historically Russia before the conquest of Siberia by Peter the Great).
- The central Russian state (Siberia) and
- the Eastern Russian state.
The conflict in Ukraine is about the US government’s goal of asserting its claim to global power, described quite openly in Washington as “global dominance.” And every geostrategic analyst knows that the US claim to global power can only be asserted if the US controls the Eurasian continent, i.e. Europe, Asia and the Middle East. The problem is Russia and China, who have the “audacity” not to submit to the will of the US, have their own reasoning and defend their own national interests.
Russia does not want Western companies to be able to exploit Russian raw materials for a fraction of their value, as they did in the 1990s, and China also does not want to subjugate the US politically and, above all, economically .
The main rival for the US is China, because China is much more powerful economically than Russia and represents a real competitor. But to really defeat China, that is to defeat it economically, because the US government does not want a real (nuclear) war with China, it must first eliminate Russia, which it sees as the weakest partner in the connection between Russia and China.
From the US point of view, Russia must be eliminated first, because China will become vulnerable without Russian raw materials if, for example, the US stops shipping oil from the Persian Gulf to China. Without Russia, China would be relatively easy prey for the US.
And this is where the conflict in Ukraine comes into play, the escalation of which the US pursued with all its might in late 2021 and early 2022 until Russia had no choice but to militarily guarantee its security, which threatened by Ukraine’s intention to join NATO at the time.
At the time, all politicians and almost all military analysts in the West were wrongly announcing in unison that Russia would collapse under the weight of sanctions within months. This was the goal because if Russia’s economy collapsed, there could be turmoil and regime change or even the dissolution of the Russian Federation.
This is what the US bet on at the time, because then they could convince a new, pro-Western Russian government (or easily controlled, small successor states) to disengage from China. After that, the way would be open for the US to attack China in an all-out economic war and weaken or crush its economy.
Furthermore, the US could force China to start a costly war with Taiwan simply by crossing all the Chinese government’s red lines, as happened in 2022 when the US tried to get Ukraine into NATO and Kiev bombed its Russian-speaking regions Donetsk and Luhansk. As is well known, the plan did not work.
Before things around Ukraine develop into a wider European war, the American elections in November may provide the solution.
