The US and China held their first informal talks in 5 years last March on nuclear weapons, with Beijing telling the Americans that it will not resort to using atomic weapons against Taiwan.
The Chinese attempted to assure their American interlocutors that they would not resort to the use of nuclear weapons or threaten to use them in the event of a military defeat in Taiwan. And this is because they are convinced that they are in a position to win a conventional battle for Taiwan without the use of nuclear weapons.
As reported, the participants in these talks are generally former officials and academics who can speak for their governments’ positions, even if they are not directly involved in shaping them. The US was represented by about 6 delegates, including former officials and scholars, at the two-day talks held at a Shanghai hotel, while Beijing sent a delegation of scholars and analysts that included many former Chinese military officers.
It is noted that these talks are called “Track Two”, while the discussions between governments and their delegations are called “Track One”.
The informal talks between the nuclear powers came at a time when the US and China are at loggerheads over major economic and geopolitical issues, with leaders in Washington and Beijing retaliating against each other. It is noted that at the governmental level, the US and China briefly resumed talks on nuclear weapons last November, but since then any negotiations have stopped.
Nuclear weapons scenarios
The US Pentagon, which estimates that Beijing’s nuclear arsenal will grow by more than 20% between 2021 and 2023, said last October that China would “consider the use of nuclear weapons if a conventional military defeat in Taiwan threatens the dominance of the Communist Party ».
China has never renounced the use of force to bring Taiwan under its control, and in the past four years has stepped up its military activity around the island. Talks at this level (Track Two) are part of a two-decade-long dialogue on nuclear weapons, which stalled after the Trump administration banned funding for them.
After the COVID-19 pandemic, some informal discussions on broader security and energy issues have been restarted, but only the Shanghai meeting dealt in detail with nuclear weapons.
500 nuclear warheads… ready
The US Department of Defense estimated in 2023 that Beijing has 500 operational nuclear warheads and will likely have more than 1,000 by 2030. This compares with 1,770 and 1,710 operational warheads deployed by the US and Russia respectively. The Pentagon said that by 2030, much of Beijing’s weapons will likely be at higher levels of readiness.
As of 2020, China has also modernized its arsenal, starting production of its next-generation submarine-launched ballistic missile, testing hypersonic glide vehicle warheads and conducting regular nuclear-armed maritime patrols. Weapons on land, in the air and at sea give China the “nuclear triad” – a hallmark of a major nuclear power.
No first use policy
Of interest is whether China still adheres to its policies of no first use and minimal deterrence, which date back to the creation of its first nuclear bomb in the early 1960s. Minimal deterrence refers to having enough nuclear weapons to deter adversaries. .
China is also one of two nuclear powers – the other being India – that has pledged not to initiate a nuclear exchange. Chinese military analysts point out that the “no first use” policy is conditional – and that nuclear weapons could be used against Taiwan’s allies – although this remains Beijing’s stated position.
China’s nuclear arsenal scares the US
Top US arms control official Bonnie Jenkins told Congress last May that China had not responded to proposals to reduce the threat from nuclear weapons that Washington raised during formal talks last year. China has yet to agree to further meetings between the governments.
“Beijing’s refusal to engage meaningfully in discussions on nuclear weapons raises questions about its already ambiguous ‘no first use’ policy and its nuclear doctrine more broadly,” the State Department spokesman said.
The Chinese delegation to the “Track Two” talks did not discuss in detail Beijing’s drive to modernize its nuclear arsenal, while China relies heavily on “risk and opacity” to moderate U.S. nuclear superiority and for this reason sees no imperative to have constructive conversations.
Chinese talking points revolved around the “survivability” of Beijing’s nuclear weapons should it suffer a first strike. U.S. officials said the Chinese described their efforts as a deterrence-based modernization program to counter developments such as improved U.S. missile defenses, better surveillance capabilities and strengthened alliances.
It is noted that the US, Britain and Australia (AUKUS) signed an agreement last year to share nuclear submarine technology and develop a new class of vessels, while Washington is now working with Seoul to coordinate responses to a possible nuclear attack. .
Washington’s policy on nuclear weapons includes the possibility of using them if deterrence fails, although the Pentagon says it will consider this only in extreme circumstances.
