The Democratic-Republican rivalry in the US, which is going through a pre-election period, has a serious impact on the war in Ukraine, since due to a lack of funding, the Ukrainians cannot repair – maintain the weapons given to them by them.
A $61 billion bailout is on the table, but its release has yet to be approved by Congress, where Republicans and Democrats have no intention of giving each other grace, especially in an election year. This week, the White House urged senators to reach a deal.
At this time, the United States cannot deliver the ammunition and weapons systems that Ukraine needs.
Worse, they also cannot maintain the operational status of the numerous equipment they have already procured, such as M142 HIMARS, Patriot air defense systems, Bradley Fighting Vehicles, and M1A1 Abrams tanks. The Pentagon is currently unable to provide the necessary spare parts or even assist the Ukrainian personnel assigned to maintenance.
“The persistent lack of funding has forced us to suspend withdrawals from our stockpiles, given the implications for our own military readiness. And of course, this prevents us from meeting Ukraine’s most urgent needs on the battlefield, especially in terms of artillery , anti-tank weapons and air defense systems,” explained Pentagon spokesman Gen. Pat Ryder. “Without additional funding, we cannot help the Ukrainians maintain the systems we have already provided them,” he added.
Lack of spare parts for the German Leopard 2 tanks given to the Ukrainians
This problem adds to the recent question raised by a German parliamentarian about the operational readiness of the Leopard 2 tanks delivered to Kiev due to a lack of spare parts. In addition, it was revealed that Ukrainian technicians are not adequately trained to perform first-level maintenance on these tanks.
The European Union (EU) unanimously approved a financial support package for Ukraine for the period 2024 – 2027
In contrast, European Council President Charles Michel announced on February 1 that all 27 EU member states approved a €50 billion (about $54 billion) support package for Ukraine, including €33 billion (about $35.8 billion) loans and 17 billion euros (about $18.4 billion) in “non-repayable support” that could potentially come from frozen Russian assets.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that the EU’s continued financial support will strengthen Ukraine’s long-term economic stability.
EU failure to supply Ukraine with requested number of artillery shells
However, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Joseph Borrell said the European Union (EU) will not be able to send the promised one million shells to Ukraine by March 2024, but plans to fulfill this promise by end of 2024.
Borrell said on February 1 that the EU delivered 330,000 rounds of artillery ammunition to Ukraine between March 2023 and January 2024 and that it plans to deliver an additional 630,000 rounds to Ukraine by the end of 2024.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the European Defense Industrial Base (DIB) has increased its production by 40% and that EU member states are working to deliver ammunition to Ukraine by drawing from national stockpiles, placing new orders or redirecting other orders.
Von der Leyen said the European Commission will soon present a new defense and industrial strategy that will create greater coherence and coordination across the EU from planning to procurement.
Finally, the head of the Ukrainian Main Directorate of Military Intelligence (GUR) Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov said in an interview with CNN that ammunition is “one of the most decisive factors” in war and that the quantity of ammunition is more important than the quality.
Victory is leaning towards Russia
From the above it is clear that the war-weary Ukraine is now largely helpless from the USA and to a lesser extent from the EU, as a result of which it is cooling down.
Unless $61 billion in US aid to Ukraine is released immediately and Putin orders a large-scale attack, which we estimate will occur around February 24th, for symbolic reasons, there is a huge risk that the front will collapse and the Ukrainians will be defeated.
