Twelve F-16 fighter jets have been sent to Ukraine by rail and road since early November, with the total number now reportedly increased to twenty-four aircraft.
They are dismantled and dispersed in warehouses around air bases. The airfields of Starokonstantinov, Doljindzhevo and the bases of Kiev could not be used, as they were frequently attacked.
There is information that some of them have already been destroyed on Ukrainian soil.
NATO early warning and control aircraft flying in Romania, Poland and the northern Black Sea by design have been tasked with identifying targets and “caging” them by radar.
Once that happens, the F-16s will attempt to engage the Russian fighters by firing AIM-120 air-to-air missiles and flying low.
Through the Link 16 data exchange system, the early warning and control aircraft will direct the missile to shoot down the Russian aircraft.
It is envisaged that some of the aircraft will remain in Ukraine and at least 36 fighters will remain in NATO countries and be used for attack and rapid return to them.
Practically and essentially, NATO is taking military action against the Russian Federation, whatever that entails.
In the first stage, attacks using Ukrainian soil will be tried, but if this does not work, the attack tactics will be processed through NATO bases in neighboring countries.
Russia has said that if that happens, it will hit the bases, risking triggering NATO’s Article 5.
The alliance wants to go ahead with the last but most dangerous tactic to undermine Russia’s air superiority.
They will push Russia to the breaking point.
For Russia, the risk of conflict with NATO will increase enormously. The place where Ukraine will benefit most from NATO intelligence is the Black Sea coast.
The Ukrainian armed forces will be able to perform both ground and aerial “correction” on targeting Russian positions, via radars from the Danube Delta and northern Turkey.
Attacks from northern Ukraine could be launched by aircraft into Poland. The Ukrainian Air Force could attempt a direct strike in eastern Ukraine and conduct a decisive dogfight with more F-16s.
The Russians believe that NATO plans to use retired F-16 pilots gathered from around the world as Ukrainian pilots are considered insufficiently trained.
It remains to be seen how the Russians will deal with the Western fighters, which will be “hiding” mainly in Western countries. They had time to implement a proper design as the delivery of the F-16s had been announced many months before.
It is noted that a new era in BVR air combat (Beyond the Visual Horizon) and air combat in general dawned a few days ago when for the first time in aviation history a fighter (a Ukrainian MiG-29) was shot down by a Russian fighter (MiG-31BM) in distance 180-210 km which is the furthest distance a fighter has managed to shoot down another fighter!
Success was achieved with a Mach 6 Vympel R-37M air-to-air missile, which has a range of 400 km (!) and until today NATO believed it was developed to shoot down slow-moving aircraft airborne radar, early warning AWACS or enemy strategic bombers (e.g. B-1B), as they considered it impossible at such distances to shoot down an agile fighter by an air-to-air missile launched from hundreds of kilometers away.
It is certain that the missile will be used against the F-16.
The F-16s are the last and most dangerous stage of NATO’s assistance to Ukraine, after that any further action could lead to a situation of no return…
