As Russia’s war against Ukraine has raged for nearly two years, neither side has made military progress in the past several months or, appears capable of achieving a significant victory by the end of 2023, or even next year. But that doesn’t mean the conflict, which Russian President Vladimir Putin launched in February 2022 with the ambition of a blitzkrieg, will end anytime soon.
Both Moscow and Kiev appear unwilling to negotiate to silence the guns. Or even settle for a frozen conflict. That is, a condition where the war confrontation has been ended, but the problem has not been settled.
Meager gains for Kiev from the counterattack
Ukraine still hopes that its counter-offensive, which has been based on modern Western equipment and has been in full swing since last June, could turn the game in its favor. But in practice, the progress made thanks to the “spring counterattack” of the Ukrainians is minimal.
In their most significant territorial advance in weeks, Ukrainian forces created several fortified bridgeheads on the Russian-held east bank of the Dnieper. This river has been separating the two warring camps for almost a year now. At stake for Kiev is to hold on to these bridgeheads, as it would then be able to begin the transfer of armor and air defense systems, bringing Ukrainian troops one step closer to the Crimean peninsula, which Putin has illegally annexed from 2014.
Russia, for its part, has focused its efforts in the east, with fighting continuing around Bakhmut. The city has been under its control for several months, despite Ukraine regaining territory in the surrounding areas last summer. Russian forces also claim to be advancing around the town of Avdiyivka near Donetsk, although Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has claimed a few days ago that the enemy has suffered significant losses in the number of soldiers and military equipment there.
Ukrainians are asking for a technological upgrade of the aid
But in fact in the last eleven months during which Moscow and Kiev launched major attacks, almost only 804 sq. km changed hands. And above all, it was Ukraine that failed to “capitalize” on the combat-ready weapon systems it received from the West.
The head of Ukraine’s armed forces, Valery Zaluzny, proposes a “big technological leap” in order to break the war stalemate: “We see everything the enemy does, and he sees everything we do. To overcome this impasse, we need something new, like the gunpowder invented by the Chinese and which we still use to kill each other.” Zaluzny talks, among other things, about the need for “innovation in drones, demining equipment but also the use of robotics” (please also read the analyis titled “Russia Arms Drones With Thermobaric Bombs, Remotely Evacuate Wounded“).
Confrontation over logistics
The war stalemate, however, has other parameters. Some of Ukraine’s strongest supporters accuse the West, and especially the US, of being too cautious about supplying the country with powerful weaponry, and particularly high-tech weapons, in the early stages of the war. What they are saying is that they may have initially supplied Kiev with sufficient military hardware, but they did not equip the Ukrainian troops with the systems that would allow them to score significant victories for fear of NATO getting involved in a war with Russia.
Consequently, the West allowed Russia to regroup and build up its defenses after the recapture of Kharkiv in the North and Kherson in the South from the Ukrainians in late 2022. Once the long-range missile systems and tanks arrived from the West, it was late. Likewise, the F-16s expected next year won’t be as useful, adds Zaluzny, “partly because Russia has improved its air defenses, while the experimental version of the S-400s can reach beyond the city of Dnipro ».
At the same time, the Ukrainian soldiers are exhausted – note that today, Thursday December 7, marks 652 days of ongoing war. Many of the best in the battle have been killed, and despite waves of recruitment, the country lacks the manpower to sustain a permanent and large-scale counteroffensive. Nevertheless, if Ukrainians stop fighting, they know they will lose their country.
Putin’s hope lies in the weariness of the West and in Donald Trump relection
As for Putin, there appeared to be no time to back down, even though his plans failed to deliver as expected, his troops suffered massive blows, and he faced a highly motivated enemy. The Russian president is still waiting for the West to tire and is hoping for a re-election of Donald Trump. In the meantime, the Russian economy has been thrown into the service of war, its defense industry has benefited from support from China and other allies, and it has weathered any problems from Western sanctions. The country shows that it is capable of producing weapons and putting manpower into battle at a steady pace, for as long as it takes. On the contrary, in this war of attrition and duration Ukraine must constantly have the support of its Western allies. Therefore, the USA and Europe must adjust their strategy with even greater assistance to Ukraine, since they consider it an integral part of the West.
