The Eastern Mediterranean Sea and the Geopolitical Developments-Part (I)

The crisis between USA and Turkey was one of the most difficult situations in the global geopolitical environment. However, during 2018, the world faced many ups and downs and awkward situations both economically (i.e. the declaration of economic-commercial war by the USA to its allies and its opponents) and geopolitically, with their causes have been created in the past years while their results started to appear in 2018.

The background of economic and geopolitical developments in the Eastern Mediterranean area

As far as are concerned the economic and commercial developments, they have begun since the last global financial crisis of 2008, and after the collapse of the Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. investment bank (2008), which financial crisis has hit both sides of the Atlantic both in the USA and the EU.

The biggest blow to this occurring mainly in most of the Mediterranean Eurozone members-countries and not only.

This financial crisis has imposed austerity measures in Eurozone countries such as Greece, Cyprus, Portugal and Ireland i.e. imposition of austerity measures to Greece together with commissioning and control borrowing etc.

Turkey, too, a country of the eastern Mediterranean was not touched by this global economic crisis of 2008.

Given that its economy is not so closed linked to the economies of the West countries (EU & USA), while due to the large volume of capital inflows in its economy from countries of Europe and Qatar, Turkey has managed to create a flourishing economy by 2013.

This booming Turkey economy has significantly raised the living standards of Turkish citizens.

by Thanos S. Chonthrogiannis-https://www.liberalglobe.com

To the extent that are concerned the developments in the geopolitical part, these started in 2011 with the blow of the “Arab Spring” which outburst in the Arab countries of the North Africa and reached until the Syria with result the outbreak there of a bloody civil war that lasts until today.

The practical results of the “Arab Spring” was

1) the creation of a civil war in Libya and Syria,

2) the collapse of the economies of those countries,

3) the changes in regimes and governments in countries like Egypt where nearly to have been established in the governmental power fanatical religious Islamic movements etc.

At the same time, was achieved a destruction of the protection shield which provided to EU by all these countries of North (Mediterranean) Africa and the Arab countries of the eastern Mediterranean.

The result was to establish a long-standing strong leverage (the migration problem) in the European Union (EU) that provokes political, economic and geopolitical reclassifications in its internal structure due to the large movement of huge population sections of the African and Asian continents respectively, to the European continent.

However, this tidal wave of changes caused by the “Arab Spring” did not touch at all and composter Turkey, gave to Turkey at the same time the right in the next years to search by itself a role to cover the any gap that appeared in the Muslim-Arab world in terms of being Turkey itself the protectoral power of all Muslims, especially the Muslims of the Mediterranean Sea.

In addition, during the summer of 2018, a very dangerous twin crisis began to emerge in the eastern Mediterranean including:

1) the USA-a founding member of the NATO (Organization of North Atlantic Treaty) and global political, economic and military superpower and the foundation stone of today’s West countries, what we call with one-word West,

with Turkey-member of NATO and presenting both separation trends from NATO and West, and participation trend in the new global economic coalition of BRICS (Brazil-Russia-India-China-South Africa).

2) the Russia (a military superpower and political foundation stone of the new economic-trade coalition with the name BRICS),

with Greece member of NATO and Eurozone/EU respectively and an integral member of West.

In this analysis (Part-I) we will refer to the first crisis between the US and Turkey and its geopolitical developments.

In the next part of this analysis (Part-II) we will be referring to the crisis between Russia and Greece and its geopolitical developments.

On Part-III of this analysis we will show how these two twin crises (US-Turkey & Russia-Greece) shape the new geopolitical reality not only in the eastern Mediterranean but also globally.

While in the last part of this analysis (Part-IV) we will present which is the right-to-implement global strategy on the western side to correct for West’s benefit the geopolitical developments.

Analytically,

The adventurous attitude on behalf of Turkey

The parallel emergence of the mineral oil wealth that exists in the bottom of the eastern Mediterranean, starting from the EEZ (Exclusive Economic Zone) of Israel, Cyprus and Greece respectively, and it is united with the EEZ of Egypt, has brought this region of world very quickly to the fore.

On the other hand, Turkey and given that its sea EEZ does not include mineral oil wealth is the only country that does not have the ability to exploit marine gas and oil fields in the eastern Mediterranean.

At the same Turkey attempts in any illegal way and circumventing international law to obtain a share of this exploitation in the eastern Mediterranean.

This adventurous attitude on behalf of Turkey, starts from the fact that Turkey name itself as a leader and protector of the Mediterranean Muslims and tries to convince, mainly the Turkish people, that as a regional power of the East Mediterranean and protector country of the Muslims and mainly the Arab-Muslims, can challenge it with any country or countries that it wants.

The emergence of gigantic natural gas deposits in the bottom of the Eastern Mediterranean and the potential prospect of greatly reducing the EU’s dependence, and especially of northern Europe dependence, on Russia’s natural gas, have legally joined these countries-(Israel, Greece, Cyprus and Egypt) in a common long-lived alliance under the umbrella of West (USA & EU).

While these interesting countries in the past did not have the best relations between them.

But the great idea and the attempt of the President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan to stay as long it is possible in the supreme power and control of the Turkish state, created the need of emergence for a narrative from the President of Turkey himself to be presented to the Turkish people.

According to this narrative, Turkey is an independent superpower at least in the Mediterranean area as much in political as in military and economic field respectively.

On a political level, this was achieved through Turkey’s emergence as a leading force in the Mediterranean Muslim world with speeches by the President of Turkey “on the borders of the heart”.

Reminiscing the borders of the Ottoman Empire with the main aim of moving to Turkey and always under the umbrella of Turkey the power centers of Islam which now these power centers are scattered in Saudi Arabia, Iran and in Egypt.

For example, the hugging of the Egyptian government of the Muslim Brotherhood movement was aimed at recognizing Turkey by the specific government of Egypt, as the new power center of Islam which protects Muslims with aim the future creation of one and only power center of Islam that will be based only in Turkey.

On a military level, this was achieved through the engagement of Turkey in the civil-war of Syria, the invasion of Turkey in the North Iraq and the long-term engagement of Turkey with the Kurdish guerrillas but also with the creation of Turkish military bases in abroad and specifically in other Muslim countries (Qatar, Albania, Somalia, Soudan etc.).

On an economic level, this was achieved with the participation of Turkey in G20, its emergence as an emerging large regional economy with many investment projects but also with its recent desire to participate actively in the economic and trade coalition of BRICS.

This type of independent but at the same time adventurous policy that followed Turkey in the recent years was patron with immediate openings from countries like:

1) Russia-whose Russia’s economic system is characterized until today by an autocratic capitalism,

2) Iran-which is cooperated and simultaneously is supported technologically and politically from Russia and China, where China supports economically and in terms of foreign exchange reserves as much Russia as Iran.

At the same time China-whose also its economic system is characterized until today by autocratic capitalism-is supported in terms of energy by the Iran and technologically from Russia.

Where Russia, through the unlimited support that Russia provides to Iran controls in energy terms China.

In this way, as much Russia as Iran avoid the any economic sanctions which by time the West imposed on them.

While the Iran, in terms of its importance, as an unexhaustive oil-producing country which belongs in the geopolitical camp of the new economic-trade coalition of BRICS-constitutes the rival awe and role held the Saudi Arabia that belongs in the geopolitical camp of West.

The fact that the USA imposed economic sanctions in Turkey, this policy forces Turkey to depend in energy terms as much from Iran as from Russia while in foreign exchange reserves will be depended also from China, except from Russia.

An immediate result of that policy will be the political, energetic and economic dependence of Turkey from the above mention countries (Russia, Iran, China) and the adaptation on behalf of Turkey the autocratic capitalistic model of Russia and China.

After the failed coup d’etat in Turkey

After the July 1st, 2016 failed coup in Turkey, was given the chance and the opportunity to the President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan to “strain” from the Turkish state mechanism all those who were enthusiasts and supporters of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk who are ardent supporters of the cosmic Turkish state and representatives of the Western culture in Turkey.

To achieve this with an easy manner and avoiding parallel the outburst of a civil war in Turkey, the President of Turkey used masterfully either he believed it or not, the narrative of Turkish nationalism.

But this Turkish nationalism came from the depths of the history of the Ottoman Empire, and not from the modern history of the Turkish state (20th century).

The nationalism of the modern Turkish state is based on the West-friendly nationalism of the Kemalists.

On the other hand, this nationalism of the President of Turkey is always closely linked to a religious fundamentalism-with aim to pull near him as a protector and the Muslims who live outside the borders of the Turkish state, the Arab-Muslims, at least the Muslims who are living in the basin of Mediterranean.

By casting the Turkish West’s followers from the any state civil services and not only from the armed forces of the Turkish state, The President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan achieved the full control of the Turkish state mechanism.

Minimizing at the same time the probabilities of overthrowing him and laying the foundations of his own dynasty but also the implementation of an “independent policy” according to the interests and the above narrative of the President of Turkey who now defines himself as the father of the Turkish people and all the Muslims equally.

Automatically, any influences of the West at this Turkish state are minimized as they disappear.

The continuous verbal attacks of the present President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan as much to the EU as to the USA (the foundation stone of the today West civilization and capitalism) with the simultaneous use of the migration problem as leverage pressure for the extraction of more and more capital and privileges especially from EU, it served as a catalyst for Turkey’s hegemonic image and tendencies that Turkey claimed in the eastern Mediterranean.

Making it believe that because of its population but also Turkey’s political and strategic space (for the West and not only) it can do whatever it wants.

At the same time, Russia and for its own reasons (about this issue I will be referred to next part of this analysis (Part-II)) has create a cold war climate across its borders with Europe.

This cold war climate starts from the Scandinavian countries and reach until Syria and with aim to create cracks in NATO.

The assistance and support of Turkey from Russia operated and still today operates as kerosene in an aircraft machine that pushes further the plans of Turkey, making Turkey to lose the meter in relation with the West countries.

The role of BRICS in these geopolitical developments

With the victory of the President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the elections of 2018, essentially started to appear fully and the transformation of Turkey.

The Turkey, from a close and first line ally of NATO and West equally to be transformed in a country which is based on the religious fundamentalism and nationalism, which is attracted (due to the political dynasty of its present President) from the autocratic political and economic-capitalistic model of Russia, China and Iran and generally from the new emerge global economic-trade coalition of BRICS.

BRICS will become very soon and a military coalition. Unofficially until today it is a military coalition only among Russia, Iran and China-that as much Russia as China constitute the founders (as to the economic and political part) of BRICS.

It is very possible this economic coalition to constitute, in global level, the new rival awe of West in the next decades.

The fact that the President of Turkey is denied to ask economic assistance from IMF (International Monetary Fund), even if the US has imposed on Turkey economic sanctions and economic war, searching parallel trade and economic solutions in Turkey’s trade balance by replacing the global currency reserve ($ USA) with the use of national currencies (for the consequences of this change in trade between the Russia, Iran, China and Turkey I will be refereed to another article) lead to the conclusion that the Turkey is moving away from the West, causing a schism in the NATO.

Causing however at the same time and the full homogeneity among the members of the NATO-at political, economic and military level equally but at last and in the level of religious education.

Leading at the same time the Turkish state existence, the Turks and the Turkish civilization in what has always belonged and still belongs.

To the depths of Asian continent-and which due to the cold war and after the end of the cold war was imposed to Turkey-through the supporters of the Mustafa Kemal Ataturk who held the executive power in Turkey, to be for at least seven decades in the West camp.

Simultaneously, with the imposition of sanctions from USA to Turkey, the EU and mainly through Germany who has an unbreakable timeless relationship with Turkey, is approaching positively and with complete understanding the issues and the economic problems of Turkey.

This EU approaching is translated as a hand of help to the present President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan (by non-imposing economic sanctions to Turkey) giving additional funds as help provision to Turkey, following the West in the case of Turkey the well-known tactic of “game theory” of “the good cop (Germany/EU) and the bad cop (USA)”.

But without Turkey to understand the goal of West which is to hold Turkey in the camp of West but in the terms of the West.

Thanos S. Chonthrogiannis

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