The recently re-elected prime minister of the German state of Bavaria, Markus Zender, has begun to project his ambitions into the realm of Berlin.
About three weeks after the local elections on October 9th, Markus Zender was officially re-elected as the prime minister of Bavaria. It is one of the largest and richest states in Germany.
It is also the electoral stronghold of the Christian Socialists (CSU), the “sister” party of the Christian Democrats (CDU).
They make up the so-called “Christian Union”, which today is in the official opposition and in first place in the opinion polls.
For the time being, he rests in the prime ministerial position in the southern German state and in the leadership of the small party of the Christian Socialists. But not in… laurels.
On the face of it, his re-election was a formality, despite his Pyrrhic victory in the recent elections. He had already secured a renewal of the CSU’s partnership with the right-wing populist Free Voters party to form a government in Munich.
Therefore, the secret vote in the Bavarian parliament, on Tuesday, did not hide any surprises. Out of a total of 198 voters, Zender got 120 votes, two less than the total seats of the governing coalition. 76 MPs voted against him. Two were away.
“We will do everything to ensure that Bavaria retains its democratic modern character,” Zender declared in his speech. “We are in difficult times,” he added, calling for the democratic forces to rally as the far-right Alternative for Germany-AfD is now sweeping western Germany as well.
In the elections in Bavaria, a third electoral force emerged. But the biggest threat to Zender’s political “star” at this stage is much closer to him.
“Political Opportunist”
This is the third term as prime minister in Bavaria for the leader of the Christian Socialists. The first was not by direct election, but by replacing his predecessor in office and party leadership, Horst Seehofer.
When the latter moved to then-Chancellor Merkel’s cabinet in 2018, as federal interior minister, the ruling CSU MPs chose Zender as his successor.
Under his leadership, however, the Christian Socialists are “stuck” at 37% – up from the 60% they previously secured in Bavaria – and in a local alliance with the “Free Voters”. Many call them “AfD light”.
In contrast to the CSU, its small government partners managed to increase their strength to close to 16%, gaining more than four points compared to 2018.
This, despite the fact that before the election their leader, Hubert Ivanger – then Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy of Bavaria – was accused of anti-Semitism. It was revealed that in his teens he distributed leaflets with Nazi views and always carried Adolf Hilter’s book “My Struggle” in his bag.
He assured that he is not anti-Semitic and denied that he was the one who wrote the Nazi leaflets. His brother eventually took responsibility. Despite the uproar, Zender did not “break up” with Ivanger. It was written in the German press that he feared the political cost, as voters in Germany are turning more and more to the right.
Now, following the new post-election cooperation agreement, “Free Voters” have announced that they will have five ministries in the new government. Among them will be the Economy, in which Hubert Ivanger is expected to remain.
Many are now eagerly awaiting the official announcement of the composition of the new Bavarian government, the balance that will be maintained with Ivanger and how this new partnership could affect Zender’s image.
A politician whom the newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung has described as an “opportunist”.
Dilemmas in the right “apartment building”
For many, it remains questionable how Marcus Zender manages – despite the worst results he has brought in the history of CSU – to remain at the top. And not only in Bavaria.
He is one of the most popular politicians in Germany. He was recently ahead again of the current leader of the Christian Democrats, Friedrich Merz. The latter is expected to do everything in his power to be the Christian Union chancellor candidate in the 2025 federal election.
But much will depend on the political and electoral developments of the coming months. The three-party federal government under the Social Democrat Olaf Solz is mired in division, cashing in on public discontent.
The AfD – now firmly second in the polls – is feverishly preparing for June’s European elections and local elections in Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg in 2024.
In the right-wing “camp”, meanwhile, there is grumbling about Merz, who took over the reins of the CDU in early 2022. Not particularly charismatic, he is increasingly leaning towards (extreme) right-wing populism.
There are not a few times that he has caused a stir with his statements. He provoked the biggest one with his recent hesitations about the – unthinkable for the democratic “arch” parties – the possibility of a partnership with the AfD at the local level.
“With such a strong AfD, a very strong prime minister is also needed,” Zeder said wryly after his victory in Bavaria. He conveniently left out of the discussion the fact that he co-governs with a populist right-wing party.
But Germany’s main opposition doesn’t appear to have many options available for 2025. The race is essentially wide open.
