Has the ground offensive in Gaza, the next stage of the war between Hamas and Israel, already begun? Strange as it may seem, there is no definitive answer to this question. Some of the analysts, journalists and observers of the region argue that it has begun and that this first phase consists of small and short incursions into Gaza, such as the one that took place last Wednesday-Thursday night. Others argue that the ground offensive has not yet begun and that the brief operations carried out by the Israeli military inside the Strip are preparatory to the ground invasion to follow.
Continuous Behind-the-Scenes Consultations
In Brussels, at the EU summit that ended on Friday October 27, the “27” managed to agree on a text calling for “humanitarian corridors and breaks for the humanitarian needs” of Gaza – all the fuss was made about whether it would be ” break’ or ‘breaks’ while the term ‘truce’ desired by Spain and Ireland was rejected.
Alongside the build-up of the Israeli armed forces around the Gaza Strip and Israeli airstrikes, which continue daily, as well as the firing of rockets by Hamas into Israel, intensive behind-the-scenes consultations and negotiations are taking place. The main ones concern the release of more than 220 Israeli hostages held by Hamas. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeated several times that there will indeed be a ground operation in Gaza. But as he added in the most recent of these, “I’m not going to go into detail about when, how, how many, or what considerations we take into account.”
What will play a decisive role
One of them is undoubtedly the hostages. In the past, Israel has gone to great lengths to free its citizens hostage – such as soldier Gilad Shalit, who was kidnapped by Hamas and freed in 2011 after five years as a hostage in exchange for the release of 1,027 prisoners, some of whom they are today leaders of Hamas.
A second is the dead from the Israeli side. Israeli public opinion cannot bear, according to Israeli and Western analysts, a massacre or annihilation in Gaza. It is estimated that in an urban guerilla war, as a protracted ground invasion of Gaza will develop, six attackers are required for every defender. There are also fears that Hamas, estimated to have 20,000-30,000 fighters in Gaza, is trying to lure the Israeli army into a trap inside the Strip.
All this plays a role in the preparation of the attack, as well as its objectives, which are not yet clear. Will Israel seek to destroy Hamas’s infrastructure, such as its network of tunnels, eliminate its leaders, or eliminate it altogether, even as a political force? Many believe that the exact form of Hamas’ annihilation will be determined as the offensive progresses.
The dead Palestinian civilians
A third parameter is the civilians killed by Israeli fire in Gaza. Already, the countries of the region, even those that were in the process of normalizing their relations with Israel, express disgust for the dead Palestinian civilians, while public opinion in the wider region is clearly in favor of the Palestinian side. If the civilian death toll rises beyond a certain threshold, or if the images from Gaza are particularly gruesome, even Washington is expected to “squeeze” Israel. More Palestinians have already been killed since October 7th than in all the wars with Israel in the 16 years that the blockade of Gaza has lasted. Inside the Lane the situation is borderline. Hundreds of thousands of residents from the northern part of it have moved to the south while everywhere there are shortages of water, food, medicine and fuel which the few humanitarian aid trucks that have entered the Strip from Egypt have been unable to cover.
The meeting of extremists
In Syria, the US struck two targets linked to Iran on Thursday night in response to recent strikes on US facilities in the country. Washington clarified that this development is not related to the Hamas-Israel war, but analysts consider it indicative of the risk of the war spreading in the region.
Finally, in Lebanon, Hezbollah announced that its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, met with leaders of Hamas and Islamic Jihad to discuss ways to support the latter two in their war with the Israeli military. The photo it released, without specifying the location or date of the meeting, shows Nasrallah along with Hamas number two Saleh al-Aruri and Islamic Jihad chief Ziad al-Nakala crouching on in a model that has a Palestinian headscarf wrapped around it, a symbol of the Palestinian struggle for statehood.
