In the second round of the Presidential elections of Argentina, on November 19, Massa and Miley, who occupied the first two positions of the first round, will face each other. Economy Minister Sergio Massa and extreme liberal economist and “anti-systemic” candidate Javier Millay emerged in the top two positions after the presidential elections held yesterday Sunday in Argentina and are headed to face off in the second round on November 19, based on so far, still some results.
Mr Massa, 51, the candidate of the ruling coalition (centre-left), overcame the huge disadvantage of record inflation and is in first place, securing 35.9% of the vote, ahead of Mr Millay, 53 , who receives 30.5% thus confirming his unexpected rise, two years after entering the political arena, according to data from Argentina’s National Electoral Commission, with 76% of the ballots counted.
Argentina was once one of the richest countries in the world, but it has been in decline for eight decades. Plagued by a growing economic crisis fueled by ultra-high inflation, polarization, rising poverty and escalating broader discontent, the country’s citizens head to the polls today for the most uncertain election in Argentina’s recent history, with an economy- minefield that the next president will be called upon to face.
The Milley effect
Bullrich’s conservative party maintains that Miley, a mix of Donald Trump and Jair Bolsonaro as described internationally, was promoted by the Peronist establishment to divide the opposition. Even if this is true, they would expect it to collect at most 10%. But now that he is ahead in the polls, everyone has been forced to take him and his proposals seriously.
Miley’s spectacular rise has surprised analysts, but they attribute it to the world’s disenchantment with the Peronist establishment. With the exception of a period between 2015 and 2019, the Peronists have held power in Argentina for the past two decades. However, political polarization, called “la grieta” (the rift), has widened in recent years, which is reflected in voter sentiment.
An anti-abortion, deeply anti-socialist economist who wants to shut down the Central Bank – “the worst piece of garbage on Earth,” as he called it in an interview – and impose the US dollar, Miley has a divisive political agenda and is an existential threat to the government’s existing alliances with much of the business sector. If he does succeed in shutting down the Central Bank, the impact will be felt far beyond Argentina’s borders.
Is the dollar the solution?
However, despite his extreme, populist speech and the dubious policies he advocates, many analysts are in favor of the dollarization of the Argentine economy, given, among other things, that inflation in Argentina has risen to 138.3%, the highest level since the early 1990s. Three Latin American economies (Panama, Ecuador and El Salvador) have already dollarized. And although the results differ, dollarization as such has worked for all three: they have all moved from regimes of very high periodic inflation to relative monetary stability.
So, despite her criticism of Millay, Bullrich’s economic team has already announced it will push for free trade and dollar contracts, while promising to cut government spending to curb inflation and also eliminate taxes on agricultural exports. products. The challenges to putting Argentina on a steady path to prosperity are enormous, but ‘sound money’ is a necessary first step – and Millay has surprisingly helped change the narrative for the better.
Massa, on the other hand, as the representative of the establishment class, continues to support the Argentine peso, however proposing more moderate policies compared to the current president Alberto Fernandez.
Be that as it may, all this does not seem to be clarified soon. After today’s elections and in order to form a government, which will be sworn in on December 10, the former must reach at least 45%, or even 40% but with a 10% difference from the latter, in order to be declared the winner. However, polls predict that neither will be achieved and that the top two candidates have advanced to the second round scheduled for November 19.
