On Monday, October 9, in the evening, two moves were made known on the part of the bloodthirsty Islamist organization Hamas in Gaza. On the one hand, it threatens to execute Israeli hostages in its hands, and on the other, it declares itself ready for talks that will lead to a truce with Israel.
According to information from open sources, behind-the-scenes diplomatic mechanisms have been set in motion involving the Egyptians, the Americans, as well as the government of Qatar, which has a very large influence in the Gaza Strip, paying heavily and systematically in an effort ” guardianship” of the Palestinians there, while also maintaining open channels with the Jewish state and Tehran. Close to Turkey and maybe even China. But the mission of those interested in achieving de-escalation, this time and especially in this phase, is extremely difficult.
The qualitative differentiation of the Hamas attack
The qualitative difference is not the successful surprise attack of the Palestinian forces, but the brutal way they treated the civilians, leaving behind hundreds of dead, taking with them hundreds of wounded, having raped, having deported, even dead. And all this animalistic behavior, as if it were not enough that it is the definition of war crimes, was celebrated by the leadership of the organization and… prayers to some – psychopathic apparently – Allah, who gave them the strength to achieve their goals. So apparently he allowed them.
Of course, these are all communication tricks. But, as the essence and determining parameter for what will be done, remains the brutal behavior towards the civilians. If they had limited themselves to attacks against Israeli military installations, even with the addition of the mass firing of missiles into Israeli urban centers, everything would have been different. In the obvious desire – strategic choice to sow terror in Israeli society, they may not have understood it from the beginning, but they have dictated some new facts themselves, from now on.
Their behavior cannot go unanswered, with the punishment on the part of the Israelis being correspondingly severe and indeed with far fewer disincentives than in the past. First of all, it is clear that Israel is rushing to capitalize on the disgust that the butchers of Hamas have caused with their behavior towards civilians and to do something that it has avoided doing in the past for fear of the dramatic negative communication impact.
Israel’s reaction
In other words, before the world can recover from the shock of the Palestinian actions, its air force rushes to level and neutralize every kind of underground command center and weapons storage, wherever it is located. In the past, such facilities have been located under mosques, hospitals and apartment buildings of ordinary everyday people. Now, in this initial phase, there is absolutely no inhibiting factor.
Everything is leveled because no one dares to articulate anything against Israel at the moment. And if it does, it will not bring the result it brought some other times. In short, Hamas lost the “moral advantage” that their few international supporters had given them. A fact that seriously troubled the Israeli planners, exerting a clear deterrent force on them. Of course, this period will be finite. And this is what the Israeli armed forces are rushing to prevent, wishing to record measurable results on the field.
Under normal circumstances, it is possible to open an issue about whether the decision to unilaterally withdraw the Israelis from the Gaza Strip was a wise move, judged in retrospect. Because it turns out that the only way to control Hamas’s behavior is to eliminate it. Probably also the physics of its leaders. In other words, in order to eliminate the recorded systematic attempt to torpedo anything in the direction of some agreement, it should be emphasized here that this behavior of Hamas is not strategically irrational.
Right now, the Israelis are sending the message that they will do anything to hit Hamas hard. At the moment there does not seem to be a clear desire for a ground attack – invasion, but only a threat. The complete blockade of Gaza was ordered, No electricity, no water, no fuel, as the Defense Minister characteristically said. Even though hundreds of Israelis are in the hands of Hamas, he does not want to show weakness and engage in negotiations, giving in “to the wishes of the terrorists”. At least at this stage.
Practically and essentially, however, with these actions, he is already indirectly negotiating. In essence he tells the concerned mediators, “first release ALL civilians so I can discuss anything”. Otherwise, the brutal actions of Palestinian militants against Israeli civilians leave no room for diplomatic procedures. “Give us something substantial, so that we are legitimized within our society to reconsider our attitude”… that seems to be the message. Assuming they haven’t decided to wipe out Hamas.
“Punishment” has always been part of the Israeli strategy, in an attempt to restore “deterrence”, which had apparently collapsed since the conflicts had broken out. This is happening even now. The evaluation of the Palestinian actions on the field, in this attack, requires a qualitatively and quantitatively different response. Otherwise, there is a real fear that the Hamas leadership will get the wrong message.
Whether it moves to physically destroy the organization’s leadership or recapture Gaza is a function of whether this is operationally feasible at a calculated cost. Because otherwise, under the pressure of the moment, it seems to have been proven that the unilateral withdrawal was interpreted as a weakness and the absolute priority was the equipment and not the well-being of the Palestinian population.
However, a role will also be played by whether such a possible decision will be assessed as negating in practice the achievements of diplomacy (e.g. the Abraham agreements). Because this too was a strategic goal for the Israelis, so they have every incentive to protect their hard-earned results. But for now, we will continue to see only fire and blood.
