With Russia’s war in Ukraine raging on the borders of the European Union, all 27 agree today that the EU must move on the path of enlargement. But they disagree on “how” and “when”.
Food for this discussion, in view of the European summit that will be held at the end of December in Brussels with the main issue being the enlargement to Ukraine, Moldova and the Western Balkans, came to offer the report of a group of 12 independent French and German political scientists who presented yesterday to their European counterparts, the ministers of European Affairs of these two countries – taking care, however, to point out that their governments are not bound by it. The title of the report is characteristic: “Sailing on High Seas: Reforming and Enlarging the EU for the 21st Century“.
It’s not ready yet
“For geopolitical reasons”, underline the 12 experts, “EU enlargement is high on the list of priorities, but the EU is not yet ready to welcome new members, neither from an institutional point of view nor from a policy point of view”.
In their opinion, therefore, the EU must first proceed with a reform of its way of functioning, a revision of the European Treaty. It is a position supported by Paris and Berlin, but disputed – as another report recently made clear – by the Baltic states, Poland, the Nordic countries and Croatia, fearing that the Franco-German dialectic is nothing more than a pretext to once again, the enlargement is abandoned.
Alliance of the willing
Aware of the differing views, the “group of 12” proposes that, should the “27” fail to agree on a treaty change and the necessary reforms, an alliance of willing countries should move forward with a “supplementary reform treaty” between the willing member states. And to “envision the future of European integration as four concentric circles, each with a different balance of rights and obligations” – an idea very reminiscent of Emmanuel Macron’s “multi-speed Europe”.
Around a hard core of countries ready for deep integration, all members of the eurozone and Schengen, will revolve “the EU”, all current and future member states; then, the Associated Members, countries that will participate in the single market and they will comply with the EU’s common principles and values, but without committing to an “ever closer union”; and finally, the European Political Community (EPC) established last year on Macron’s initiative to ensure a dialogue with all countries of the continent, a group focused on “geopolitical convergence and political cooperation”.
The rule of law
Of particular interest is the boundary that the 12 Franco-German experts place between the first three and the fourth concentric circle: the “border of the rule of law”. As well as their pointing out that some countries may join the circle of Associated Members or EPC by “their own political will, either because they are leaving the EU or because they have no intention of joining in the first place”.
Given the problems caused by Poland and Hungary for years, they suggest a simplification of the “Article 7” procedure, which can deprive a member state of its voting rights in the European Council, as well as a greater reliance on the disbursement of European funds funds from respect for the rule of law. They also propose a generalization of the procedure for adopting European decisions by qualified majority, rather than unanimity, as well as a new calculation of the qualified majority, which would give more say to small countries.
