The developments in Russia with the escalation of confrontation between the mercenary forces of Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Russian regular army, were brought to an end after the intervention of the Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko. However, given the size, but also the specific weight of the Russian Federation, the whole world watched the developments frozen and worried. However, the image broadcast by the networks worldwide was inconsistent with the objective capabilities of a force of 25,000 men (Wagner), of which 5,000 men were moving towards Moscow with a population of 12-13 million! Was there ever seriously a chance that he would threaten the Putin regime?
Wagner’s forces were finally ordered to break off the advance towards Moscow and return to their camps. They were at a distance of 300 kilometers from the capital. The remaining forces of Wagner have captured some military bases in Rostov and Voronezh, control some points, but have avoided clashes with forces loyal to the government camp.
Characteristic of the vagueness of the information being circulated, the estimate of armored vehicles of various categories moving towards Moscow with Wagner’s 5,000 men was estimated at 150 to 400! The discrepancy is too great to evaluate such information coming from open sources and consider it reliable.
The preparations made in Moscow for the possibility of conflict were also excessive. Perhaps this is explained by the regime’s fear of having missed some movement within the armed forces and being caught by surprise. That is, it was a preparation based on some worst-case scenario, even though this had little chance of actually happening (please also read the analysis titled “The “Timeless lesson” of Military Outsourcing” & “Russia: The reasons that led to the Prigozhin-Wagner uprising“).
In Prigozhin’s own statements, it was emphasized that the forces of the Russian National Guard did not confront his own troops wherever they met. His apparent aim was to create the impression that they refused or avoided conflict. In fact, the leadership of the armed forces and the Kremlin had every reason to wish to avoid civil bloodshed, and throughout the crisis they showed great restraint.
This is logically why the advance of Wagner’s forces across the M4 was not attempted to be halted by a massive air strike. Although information indicated that a section of the M4 motorway was bombed to impede the advance means that methods were chosen to minimize casualties.
As of the morning of Saturday June 24, an attempt to de-escalate the dangerous situation through talks was underway. Prigozhin was visited and talked to by the Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation, Yunus-bek Yevkurov. Colonel-general of the Russian Army, former governor of Ingushetia in the Caucasus, survivor of an assassination attempt.
The reference to his “resume” is appropriate, as he comes from the Muslim Federal Republic of Russia, at a time when troops of Chechen Ramzan Kadyrov, a known supporter of Putin, were spotted moving towards Rostov, in the Southern Military District, with the intention of confronting armed Wagner. He was accompanied by another high-ranking official, Vladimir Alekseev, deputy head of the GRU military intelligence service. He had played a role in the founding of Wagner and played a coordinating role in its relationship with the Russian Ministry of Defense.
“Nuclear Alert” and Ukrainian Exploitation
Excessive discussions, however, also opened about the fate of Russia’s nuclear arsenal. The head of the Russian Security Council and former president Dmitry Menvedev said that “the world will be on the brink of destruction if Wagner gets access to nuclear weapons.” The nuclear references started with the advance of Wagner’s forces towards Moscow. The question is, why head there if Prigozhin’s goal was the nuclear arsenal, when there are nuclear weapons in the Southern Military Wing he was already in!
At the same time, however, the Ukrainians announced that they are starting new operations in the east of their country. Since the morning of Saturday, June 24, information has been circulating about movements in the area of Bahmut, while a few hours ago it appears that they crossed the Dnieper River in an attempt to recapture territories in the area of Kherson. How many friends are close to Prigozhin and what would be their reaction to hearing this news?
Logic dictated, of course, that such a move would turn many of Prigozhin’s sympathizers at the level of Russian society and the Russian elite against him, insofar as his mutiny theoretically threatened to reverse the results on the battlefield in Ukraine. Did this play a role in Prigozhin accepting Lukashenko’s proposal for a truce, or is it a safe and convenient way for everyone to disengage? Is it possible that he honestly believed that 5,000 men marching towards Moscow would make it?
The Kremlin showed restraint, wishing to avoid fratricide at all costs. Settling accounts cannot be done in the midst of the war in Ukraine. So, from the beginning, there was a predisposition of the Russian leadership to put enough water in its wine to achieve de-escalation. When the adventures are over, purges are very likely. But let’s not rush to prejudge who they will concern.
The problem actually exists in Russia
What then is the real situation in Russia? It should be taken for granted that backlash over the Kremlin’s handling of the war in Ukraine exists. However, it is not something new. Probably this dissatisfaction also concerns the Russian elite. Regardless of this discontent, however, to expect regime change from the approach of 5,000 men to Moscow was not reasonable.
It stands to reason that truly serious international players fear that such situations may spiral out of control. Examples of overthrowing unwanted leaders who caused more problems than they solved are too many. And when the discussion is about a country that stretches from Europe to the Pacific, across from Japan, the destabilization zone would potentially arise, it could blow up the planet. Only fools can’t see it.
