The big winner in Syria appears to be Russia and the Russian President Vladimir Putin. The American promises made with the agreement between Michael Pence and Erdogan are of little importance given the withdrawal of US soldiers from Syria, indicating that the U.S. has been self-marginalized in the region without being able to change the developments.
by Thanos S. Chonthrogiannis
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Photo by: The Presidential Press and Information Office, https://el.wikipedia.org/wiki/creativecommons/3.0/deed/el
US Policy in Syria
The withdrawal of American soldiers in Syria, although facilitating the US President’s narrative in the upcoming presidential election in November 2020 that he kept his promise and brought back the children of the American people from a conflict that is far away and it does not concern them as a nation, but his choice globally affected the U.S. public image as a superpower abandoning the Kurds who until recently were the US allies in the war against IS.
Certainly Turkey is very important as a country and an ally for the US due to its strategic position and for this reason the US President has abandoned the Kurds, but in future allies and enemies of the US may not give weight to the word and US diplomats policy when their President can ignore all of this at any time.
Of course the majority of the U.S. political system is in favour of globalisation and the US interests directly linked to it, knowing that the American Imperium is ensured only in the presence of Americans soldiers in the regions of the world and the US political system has the power to support the interests of the United States.
Pax Russica in Syria
Russia took advantage of the void created by the withdrawal of 1000 US soldiers from their bases in Syria and with their departure they immediately transported Russian troops to settle on the bases of the Americans and in conjunction with the forces of Assad invaded the major cities of northern Syria, Kobane, Qamishli, Raka etc.
The reality that was formed shows that if Turkey can be pressured by some forces these are the forces of Russia and Assad equally who are the real winners of the war in Syria. The agreement reached in the Russian base in Hmemim 12 days ago, between Kurds and Assad was the turning point in the developments created by Turkish invasion.
The meeting between Erdogan and Putin in Sochi, Russia begins outlining the contours of Pax Russica in Syria. The presence of Turkey will be confined to the areas of the Kurds that it has already occupied with its invasion but will not be allowed to enter the major Kurdish cities in northern Syria.
For its part, the Assad government will grant the Kurdish population of Syria cultural autonomy (language, education, justice, etc.) to recognise them as a nation and give them a satisfactory degree of local self-government while the militia of Kurds will be incorporated into the Syrian army and will take over guarding the border in their northern Syrian regions.
After these developments, Russia emerges as the only credible interlocutor-mediator for resolving conflicts in the Middle East. This fact is confirmed that Russia simultaneously talks with Israel, Palestinians, Turkey, Syria, Kurds, Saudis (the recent visit by Putin to Riyadh sent the message to whom the peoples of the Middle East should be looking for their problems) and Iranians.
Photo by Doomych, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_domain
Pax Russica and in the whole Middle East?
The bet from now on is whether Russia and its allies will be able to rebuild Syria that will need huge funds. Russia alone cannot because its economy is reeling from the sanctions imposed due to Ukraine conflict and the annexation of Crimea.
Even if Russia asks for financial aid from Turkey and Iran, both countries are facing serious problems in their economies because of the imposed sanctions on Iran and the vulnerable Turkish economy.
The only solution for Russia is to seek China’s help in financing the reconstruction of Syria. In this case, the ancient land trade routes of the Middle East will revive from Tehran-Basra-Baghdad-Syria-the Mediterranean Sea that will have road and rail axes equally which will be accompanied by gas and oil pipelines.
These land-based trade routes will be joined by the respective China-Pakistan terrestrial trade routes, creating the “Silk Roads” envisioned by China.
Normally, China’s participation in the reconstruction of Syria will be exchanged politically and militarily incentives, e.g. as it was in Sri Lanka, where a billion-dollar debt of the country was erased to China in exchange for the creation of naval and air base equally in the country.
China has naval and air bases in Pakistan (Gwadar) and in Djibouti in the Horn of Africa. Its next bases will be on the shores of the Mediterranean Sea in Syria and probably in Turkey.
At the same time Russia is providing arms S-400 for the anti-aircraft and anti-missile protection of most Middle Eastern countries (Iran, Turkey, Syria) and in the future it will be able to associate other customers. Already the range of these weapons systems cover 75% of the Middle East.
At some point, the Middle East countries that possess the above weapons system will also seek to purchase the advanced technology fighters of Russia to complete their anti-aircraft and anti-ballistic umbrella protection.
It is likely that the Middle East has been lost in the future by the geopolitical sphere of Pax Americana because of the erratic policy implemented by the US President in order to win the upcoming elections in his country.
