Volodymyr Zelensky speaking in the European Parliament underlined once again that his country is fighting invaders to “defend the European way of life”, to add that “this is our Europe, these are our rules, this is the our own way of life”, underlining that Ukraine’s home is the European Union”.
However, even though the European Union has chosen to give Ukraine the status of a candidate member in an express manner, this does not mean that the process will be so easy and above all it will be very difficult to be a fast process.
Why there is no question of quick entry of Ukraine into the EU
Although the EU managed relatively soon to escape the limits of the EEC of 9 members and integrate a significant part of the European Continent, since then the enlargement process has largely frozen.
It is enough to consider that both the countries of the Western Balkans and Turkey have been waiting for several years. And if for Turkey it is obvious that very early it appeared that very difficult countries like France could accept such a large population of Muslim country in Europe, for the countries of the Western Balkans like Serbia, Albania or North Macedonia the problems was elsewhere.
The accession process first has a series of conditions concerning the institutional framework, the rule of law and the fight against corruption. These conditions take time to satisfy.
Then there are the problems of economic convergence, since we are talking about economies with several problems and weaknesses. The main thing is that these are countries that will need significant financial support in an EU that fights every time it has to draw up a budget and where several of the rich countries are not very willing to contribute for the “poor relatives” of the Union.
The problems from any entry of Ukraine
Against this background, any entry of Ukraine into the Union would pose various challenges.
1. First of all, if it accelerates at the pace requested by the Ukrainian government, this means that the EU will have to put a country in a state of war or even a ceasefire. This in itself is a situation the EU is not used to.
2. Then, in all likelihood, a part of the area that the EU will recognize in Ukraine as its territory, Russia will not only control, but also recognize as its own. This too is a condition that the EU has not been faced with. It is enough to think that even in the case of Cyprus even “Turkish Cypriot” refers to the goal of a federation that would ensure its own representation in the EU.
3. Ukraine is a country that will need enormous financial support and over time. That is, not only for the reconstruction but also for its economic reconstruction afterwards. This will also mean a large financial burden for the EU itself.
4. Moreover, Ukraine is a country with very large agricultural production. Essentially, it will thus be able to claim a very large part of the resources of the Common Agricultural Production.
5. On the political level, Ukraine still has various institutional problems. And if the EU could make an exception for the problems objectively caused by the widespread ban of parties and organizations accused of being “with the enemy”, there are also all the problems of corruption that have emerged even recently.
6. And of course a country with the population of Ukraine (43 million before the war) is a country that will have significant weight in the EU decision-making process and it is not at all a given that all countries would like to see a change in the current relations in terms of decision-making.
All this means that the EU, in its current form and its current actual institutional architecture, could hardly really welcome Ukraine as its member. This, in fact, concerns a process that presupposes the end of the war, the clarification of the borders and of course the “existential” choice at the level of the EU’s leadership formations to proceed with an enlargement towards which significant resources should also be allocated.
Can the EU give weapons?
In any case, at this stage the government of Ukraine is mainly interested in acquiring armaments that will allow it to repel the systematic Russian effort to modify the correlation and, if possible, to counterattack. This includes tanks, artillery, longer range missiles, increased air defense and of course fighter jets. It is no coincidence that President Zelensky himself always puts together in his statements the need for weapons, funding and defense of common values.
However, the military assistance that Ukraine seeks will primarily come within the framework of NATO and the wider “Western” alliance as it is currently defined, rather than from the EU which is far from having a common defense policy.
What it looks like the EU will contribute is another package of sanctions against Russia that EU officials say could mean as much as 10 billion in costs for Russian exports.
The process horizon
Around the issue of EU membership, there have been real vacillations and questions in Ukraine as to the overall orientation of the country, whether it would be towards the wider “Russian space” or towards the West and the EU space.
The discussion begins in 1994, with a cooperation agreement and in 2009 the discussion of an association agreement began. But Ukraine’s government suspended talks on its signature in November 2013, with the then government of Viktor Yanukovych. It was this postponement that triggered the major conflicts and confrontations in Ukraine in 2013-2014, which eventually took the form of a civil war in the east. Finally, the agreement will be signed for the political part in March 2014 and for the financial part in June 2014.
Thus, the official application for EU membership was made on February 28, 2022, a few days after the start of the Russian “special military operation”, an application and shortly after this move received the support of European governments as well.
On June 17, 2022, the European Commission issued its opinion and argued that Ukraine should be granted candidate status on the understanding that the following steps will be taken:
- “To enact and implement legislation on the selection process of judges of the Constitutional Court of Ukraine, including a pre-selection process based on the assessment of their integrity and professional skills, in accordance with the recommendations of the Venice Commission,
- To complete the integrity check of candidate members of the Supreme Council of Justice by the Ethics Council and the selection of the candidate for the establishment of the Supreme Committee of Qualifications of Judges of Ukraine,
- To further strengthen the fight against corruption, especially at a high level, through proactive and effective investigations and a reliable track record of prosecutions and convictions – finalizing the appointment of the new head of the Special Anti-Corruption Prosecution through the certification of the tender winner and the initiation and completion of the selection and appointment process of the new director of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine,
- To ensure that anti-money laundering legislation is in line with Financial Action Task Force (FATF) standards – approve a general strategic plan to reform the entire law enforcement sector within Ukraine’s security environment,
- To implement the anti-oligarch law to limit the excessive influence of oligarchs in economic, political and public life – this should be done in a legally sound manner, taking into account the forthcoming opinion of the Venice Commission on the relevant legislation,
- To address the influence of vested interests by adopting a media law that will align Ukrainian legislation with the EU Audiovisual Media Services Directive and empower the independent media regulator;
- To complete the reform of the legal framework for national minorities under preparation, as recommended by the Venice Commission, and establish immediate and effective implementation mechanisms.”
On June 23, the European Parliament voted to obtain candidate membership status and on the same day the European Council recognized Ukraine as a candidate member. But in reality this just marked the beginning of the process. And there are several countries that would not like this process to be accelerated so much.
