It is a fact that Russia used as a pretext the oppression of the Russian speakers in Donbas, in order to carry out its invasion of Ukraine, while in reality what weighed more was the fact that the latter was in favor of joining NATO, bringing to the fore a great Putin’s fear for years, namely what would happen if Ukraine and Georgia joined NATO.
The 2008 NATO Bucharest Summit in Romania was fast approaching, and Condoleezza Rice had to convince the Germans and other members to support the NATO membership of Ukraine and Georgia.
Rice pressed Germany but to no avail and left for Bucharest without her consent. It took some wrangling with the Germans at the summit, but Rice managed to get German Chancellor Angela Merkel to agree.
Not for an immediate Accession Action Plan for Ukraine and Georgia, but it achieved the next best thing, support for eventual accession.
The Germans and French were opposed because of their belief that Russia would retaliate. The Russians were obviously against it.
The government of Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili strongly supported joining the alliance. George Bush J. he was decisive and reacted quickly. “If these two democratic states want to join, I can’t say no.” Bush was resolute and public about his stance. He later told the media that he “strongly supported” the accession of Ukraine and Georgia.
If Ukraine and Georgia could have succeeded in joining NATO, then, starting with a specific Membership Action Plan in 2008, could this have changed history?
Perhaps full membership could have helped Ukraine avoid Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
By offering Georgia and Ukraine a distant prospect of NATO membership in Bucharest, the alliance not only acknowledged Russia’s indirect veto over allied decision-making, but encouraged Putin to be more demanding, laying the groundwork for its next attacks. of Russia against Georgia and Ukraine.
From a historical perspective, the Bucharest summit proved to be the turning point that paved the way for Russian military offensives, heralding both the beginning of the end of the post-Cold War era and the current global systemic restructuring.
Georgia and Ukraine never joined NATO. This is a fact. But 2008 could have been the first step towards a more secure and peaceful post-Soviet space. Russia may not have been as aggressive with Article V of the alliance presented as a deterrent.
We cannot be sure that the Kremlin would resist a breach of the rules-based order. Russia could have respected the borders of Georgia and Ukraine more. Indeed, Russia invaded Georgia four months after Bucharest.
Conclusions
- It appears from the above that NATO’s reluctance in 2008 to grant an Integration Action Plan to Georgia and Ukraine, and the subsequent failure to save Tbilisi, encouraged Moscow to use the same tactic against Ukraine in 2014, as it annexed Crimea and conducted attacks in Eastern Ukraine, thereby setting the stage for Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
- There are not a few who argue that, in the event that Georgia expressed interest in joining NATO, Russia would react with an invasion as it did in Ukraine. The question is whether Russia can militarily withstand a second front at the same time and what the consequences would be if the country joins NATO. Our assessment is that the geopolitical and geoeconomic importance of Georgia is extremely important for the interests of the US-EU against those of Russia-China and Turkey.
- The accession of Georgia to NATO would cause chain complications in the geopolitical chessboard and given that it would cancel the Turkish plans for the creation of a strong “Organization of Turkish States” headed by Turkey, since the other countries in the region would look for the provision of security that would offered their membership in the Atlantic Alliance, despite Turkey.
- Georgia accession to NATO would mean the beginning of Russia’s loss of control of its southern stronghold in Transcaucasia.
- Finally, the implementation of the Main Street of the Silk Road would be significantly hampered.
