Sighs of relief were heard on the planet with the announcement of the results of the mid-term elections in the USA, which completely renewed the composition of the Congress and partly of the Senate, while state governors were also elected.
All the polls showed that the Democrats were going to pay dearly for President Biden’s low – by US standards – approval rating, which is consistently below 40%, the highest inflation in the last 40 years – around 8% – and the new rise in crime. There is also a historical precedent according to which voters “punish” the party of the current president in the midterm elections. Democratic presidents Clinton and Obama, Republican Trump had suffered major defeats, and everyone expected things to be even worse for Biden.
The ominous scenario of Midterm Elections and……
A major defeat for the Democrats and Biden in the midterm elections would create a huge problem for the E.U. The Biden administration would lose its effectiveness if the Republican-controlled legislatures would block all of his initiatives. The US would appear weak and in a transitional phase at a time when the war in Ukraine is in full swing and the confrontation between the US and the West in general with China has escalated.
In addition, Trump appeared as the man who pulled the strings in the most critical electoral contests and was ready to turn a possible major defeat of the Democrats into personal political capital. He expected impressive electoral results in favor of the Republicans and had announced that on November 15 he would make a major statement, clearly implying that he would be a candidate again in the 2024 presidential elections.
So the stage was set for a major political upheaval in the US that would further reduce the credibility of what we call the West.
The Talented Mr. Biden
None of this happened. Biden had the smallest losses, as far as his party is concerned, of most US presidents in recent decades.
The excesses of the ultra-conservative justices appointed by Trump to the US Supreme Court – who proceeded to repeal the federal guarantee of the right to terminate a pregnancy – caused an impressive rally of women in favor of the Democrats. Educated working women in particular voted by a huge margin in favor of Democratic candidates and against Republicans.
Even stronger was the dynamic in favor of the Democrats among young voters. They voted in favor of them 2 to 1, sending a message that the Republican conceptions of the organization of society do not represent them.
Such was the social dynamic that developed that the issue of termination of pregnancy rivaled – at the polling level – the huge issue of accuracy and the decline in real income for workers.
Biden may not be charismatic and approaching 80, but he is steadfast in his effort, has an image of calm institutional power and has “read well” his opponent, Trump. He has been heavily criticized for his divisive initiatives, such as encouraging the January 2020 riots over alleged election fraud and his extreme positions on social issues and immigration.
Democrats forced Republicans to apologize for some of Trump’s choices and method, creating a positive political dynamic for them.
They managed to keep control of the Senate with the narrow majority they had, they lost control of the Congress, where the difference in the seats in favor of the Republicans is small.
Considering that Biden has had an extremely rich legislative work in the last two years and is considered a consummate connoisseur of the US legislatures, we can assume that he will find a consensual way to pass key points of his economic and social policies.
An impressive success for the Democrats and personally for Biden is that Trump’s dominance over the Republican Party “cracked” for the first time in recent years. He made personal interventions in favor of candidates with extreme positions and mainly deniers of the election result of the 2020 presidential election. His interventions did not have the expected results with the consequence that the Republicans lost certain seats in the Senate and the Congress and prevented a major defeat of the Democrats that would it made a difference.
On November 15, Trump did indeed announce his candidacy for the 2024 presidential election, but he did so under completely different circumstances than he had anticipated. He made the announcement not as the triumphant midterm election and undisputed Republican leader, but as a leader who has begun to be questioned and rushed to tie the knot by announcing his presidential candidacy.
The Republicans’ below-expected performance in the midterm elections set off a chain reaction against Trump. He lost the support of the powerful Murdoch group that controls everything from the New York Post and the Wall Street Journal to the Fox television network.
He gained a competitor for the Republican nomination for 2024 in the person of Florida Governor Ron DeSandis, who was triumphantly re-elected with 60%. DeSandis, a vigorous 40-year-old who made a career in the legal services of the Armed Forces, married with three children, is of the Trump school but in a more sophisticated form. It is already a rallying point for Conservatives who would like to get rid of Trump, his belligerence and his rhetoric.
Biden places special emphasis on the cultivation of US-EU relations, he considers the EU important part of the Western system and seeks leading participation of Europeans in NATO.
Biden’s perception of the modern world is very close to that of Europeans, while his moderation and consistency help to assess common problems. Characteristic from this point of view is the meeting he had in Bali, Indonesia, with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, where he made the US positions clear, avoiding unnecessary tensions and giving his interlocutor the opportunity to put an end, if he wishes, to the great tension that observed in recent years in the relations between the two superpowers.
