The two months ago analysis of our magazine – The Liberal Globe, entitled “Why the EU’s Proposal to Impose a Cap Only on Russian Natural Gas is Wrong?” (September 15, 2022), called the possible decision to introduce a ceiling on Russian oil prices a big mistake. Because essentially the price ceiling amplifies the risk of escalation. The restriction will reduce Russia’s profits from the sale of raw materials and may retaliate, escalating the intensity of the war, eliminating any chances of an “honest” compromise.
Or the recent but shocking proposal of the Belgian senator Alain Detex: “in the interest of Europe and Europeans, we must abandon Zelensky’s hard line, agree with Russia on the division of Ukraine and lift sanctions, this is the way to salvation”.
It seems simply unrealistic for an average person who is not immersed in world processes to hear such things from the lips of a European politician. Information from various sources says that states are planning to consolidate the efforts of those in favor of early negotiations.
We are talking about mainly European countries, where voters are afraid of being drawn into the conflict. By the way, in the summer, many world media reported that the West was not ready to support Ukraine for a long time due to the extension of the “war”.
Recently, the New York Times generally wrote that aid to Kyiv would last until mid-2023 at best, due to the fact that further arms deliveries would worsen the United States’ own military readiness. Here are the reasons, and even the details of the terms of the agreement Washington and Moscow struck.
To show the seriousness of his intentions, Biden’s national security aide, Sullivan, after a recent visit to Russia, went to Zelensky and explained to him the sequence of events in the coming days. We leave Kherson (Russians) and they (Ukrainians) enter there, without noise and dust. And that’s how it happened.
And the fact that the withdrawal of Russian troops, despite the nocturnal “dispersion” by the public, for a fake force of about twenty thousand of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, which allegedly fell into a cordon at the Dnieper crossing, (Zelensky must also to somehow explain to his audience what kind of strange peaceful withdrawal this is), which took place without special incidents (the Russian Ministry of Defense has already reported its success), negates the need for any additional argumentation.
All this indicates a clean deal. But after all that has happened, a natural question arises: why? Because, in reality, the Russian government needed all these behind-the-scenes games. The inability of the Russian army to conduct hostilities is something that can be proven.
In the end, President Vladimir Putin himself said: “we haven’t started yet.” So, there is still “gunpowder in the bottles” and it could “start”. Why didn’t they do that? There are two possible versions:
1. The US and the EU have promised to stop actively supporting Ukraine with money and partly with weapons.
In recent days, the United States has already announced that it will not send Gray Eagle MQ-1C attack drones to Ukraine (which Kyiv has persistently requested for several months), and the EU has refused to allocate three billion previously promised to the Ukrainian leadership, and for those 18 scheduled for next year, on the one hand, the Hungarians are already blocking them, and on the other hand, if they do, it will only be in the form of loans, and it is not certain that they will give them.
Ukraine has a budget hole. External debt is 101% of GDP, in the 2023 budget and all social spending (pensions, salaries to civil servants, social payments) will only be done if the money is given. There is no need to talk about the damaged energy system and the possible collapse of housing and community services. Therefore Ukraine will starve even without war. And in this situation according to the logic of the Kremlin if there is more Kherson, less Kherson does it matter? They’ll give up soon anyway.
Confirming this version, there are currently very active discussions in Europe about the division of Ukraine, where the left bank is for Russia, while the rest will belong to Ukraine or between the Poles, Romanians and Hungarians, where in the last version maybe some area around Kyiv will remain as “Ukraine”.
2. The purpose of the agreement was to save money for the Russian elite and the Russian state in general
The return of capital is extremely necessary for the Russian state and for Russian businesses. The Russian elite still keep all their money there abroad and in Ukraine. Undoubtedly, all large Russian companies are interested in bringing their capital to Russia.
Recently in Ukraine they presented a list of local businesses that they want to nationalize. So, among them, a huge number belong to our businessmen, from Gazprom and Alexei Miller personally to Oleg Deripaska. Knowing this, it becomes clear why the Russian Aerospace Forces do not hit bridges and destroy the entire Ukrainian industry. Businesses will suffer.
Which of the presented versions to prefer is a personal matter for everyone. But so far, the entire course of NMD stubbornly proves that the current war is painfully “hybrid”, already beyond the limits.
Obviously, everything is simpler and at the same time more complicated. Putin, for a large percentage of his people, is a visionary. Or, as some smart people say, “it’s in space.” Having set himself a clear goal of what, in his opinion, Russia should be in 30-50 years, he is moving towards this goal step by step. All the momentary things are not important to Putin.
Perhaps the withdrawal of Russian forces from the Kherson, based on the top-down approach, proves that the end justifies the means (under certain conditions, indeed it does), but the problem is that, crossing the horizon, Putin, it seems, simply he stopped looking at his feet.
Conclusions
From our analysis above, the following is evident:
1. There are serious arguments that prove that the withdrawal of Russian forces from Kherson is the product of a previous US-Ukraine agreement with Russia.
2. The reasons why Russia made this agreement are ambiguous, regarding either the imminent withdrawal of US-EU military-economic support to Ukraine, or the financial rescue of Russian financial tycoons from nationalization of their industries by the Ukrainians.
Our assessment is that, from a military point of view, the manner and process of the withdrawal of Russian military forces from Kherson does not stand, providing us with clear indications that the whole operation was pre-agreed between Russians on the one hand and Ukrainian-US on the other and we explain why.
Because, from a tactical point of view, it was correct for the Russians to withdraw from Kherson, from the west bank of the Dnieper, since otherwise the single Russian bridgehead would have been mercilessly pounded by the Ukrainians, which would have meant a large number of Russian casualties, which would receive continuous attacks, with the very likely consequence of their total destruction. In this case, Russia could use tactical nuclear weapons.
However, what raises questions for us is why the Ukrainian army did not immediately destroy the bridge of retreat of the Russians in Kherson, which connected the West bank with the East bank, in order to cut off their retreat, trap them and destroy a large number of their soldiers .
This would be the militarily appropriate first action for the Ukrainians if they wanted to trap and destroy the retreating Russian forces. This did not happen, since the specific bridge was destroyed by the Russians, when they had already completed their withdrawal.
Also, after the Russians retreated, why didn’t they respond with an artillery barrage against Kherson, interrupting the fiesta of Ukrainian citizens and soldiers? This is also another important unanswered question based on military tactics, since artillery is known to cover the withdrawal of combat units when they retreat.
In closing, we should point out that we expect negotiations to end the war in Ukraine to begin in a short period of time, specifically with the arrival of Winter, when military operations in Ukraine will cease.
