US President Joe Biden’s policy on Ukraine’s defense and EU security in general compared to Russia, is viewed very positively by the EU.
But Europeans need to do more for their own defense and security because the political landscape in the United States is changing. They should not be so dependent on the choices of the American allies and should rely more on their own forces, within the framework of the so-called European strategy of autonomy. But a huge distance has to be covered to turn it into European policy.
According to estimates, the Democrats will lose the majority in the Senate and Congress in the November 2022 elections (for more information on this issue please read the analysis entitled “Democrats Risk Losing the November Midterm Elections“) . That means President Joe Biden’s freedom of movement will be curtailed if the legislature is controlled by Republicans.
However, no change in attitude is expected on the issue of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as there is a convergence between Republicans and Democrats. US President Joe Biden’s proposals for extremely significant $40 billion in financial and military aid have generally been welcomed by all Europeans.
The situation is more complex in terms of the 2024 presidential elections. Joe Biden is experienced but in many cases he looks tired. Donald Trump is projecting himself as a strong contender for the presidency, but there are signs that he is losing ground in the Republican Party and in public opinion.
The only way for the Democrats to win the presidential election again is to gradually increase the political capital of US Vice President Kamala Harris, taking over the presidency at least six months before the election. Democrats should not make the same mistake the Christian Democrats did in Germany, where outgoing Chancellor Angela Merkel instead of stepping down during her presidency and leaving one of her replacements in the party to run for office. Moreover, it created the preconditions for the victory of the Socialists in the 2021 elections.
It would be extremely constructive for Democrats in the last six months of current Presidency, Joe Biden to step down with glory and honors and be replaced by incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris to run for the presidency in 2024 elections.
Uncertainty over US political developments is another argument in favor of strengthening the joint European defense and security effort.
