The Emerging Multicenter World by CIA

The latest CIA report on the great threats to our world, as recorded by the French magazine “Le Poin” in its special edition (The Annual Assessment of US Intelligence Threats-has just been translated into French (Les Nouvelles Menaces sur notre monde vues par la CIA, Editions des Equateurs), successfully describes many developments and offers valuable food for thought and reflection. The agency diligently avoids making political suggestions. But the reader of the report immediately understands that in the emerging polycentric world, the forces of authoritarianism and aggressive totalitarianism will give the all-out fight against the Western type of liberal democracy.

And the meaning that the CIA gives to the term liberal, in essence, implies Western social democracy. In other words, US intelligence research, indirectly but clearly, raises the question of defining capitalism as the starting point of the mixed economy in the Western world.

Consequently, in addition to the confrontation between authoritarianism and democracy, we have a clash of capitalisms, which makes our emerging world extremely dangerous, slippery and complex. Because the factors and factors involved in this controversy do not bear much resemblance to the corresponding traditional ones used by Marx and the neoclassical founders of political economy.

For example, when Karl Marx wrote about the primary accumulation of capital, one could hardly imagine that artificial intelligence could turn one into a billionaire in a matter of weeks and a millionaire in half an hour. In his day, artificial intelligence and the digital economy were not known nor do they refer to science fiction.

In addition to the above considerations, the CIA report points out that the Russian attack on Ukraine is much more serious than some flat interpretations. In terms of impressions, it is pointed out that the Russian invasion threw more refugees into the streets than the Old Continent had seen after the collapse of Nazi Germany. The conflict has also caused a global energy crisis. It has increased the range of food shortages. It has dismantled planetary production lines. Accelerate inflation. It has caused successive social tensions. And it’s not over yet: the Russian army continues its offensive in Ukraine. We are living in the “beginning of a change of era”, the authors of the report observe, but stressing that the western world has the potential for effective defense. Despite these possibilities, the alliance of authoritarian countries has strong political, communication and economic means to undermine them.

“There is a way for the international liberal and democratic order to be shaken either by state agents (Iran, North Korea) or by terrorist entities such as Islamic State, Al Qaeda and Hezbollah, or by large networks of organized crime and drug trafficking.

“Beijing, Moscow, Tehran and Pyongyang have demonstrated their ability and intention to advance their interests to the detriment of the United States and its allies.” The United States’s main adversaries and rivals are improving their military, cyber-attack, and other capabilities and are reluctant to use them, increasing the risks to the United States and its allies, weakening our conventional deterrence and exacerbating the long-term threat weapons of mass destruction D. “, notes the report, of which we publish exclusive excerpts.

It warns that collective and transnational threats – climate change, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, cyber threats, terrorism, the militarization of space, pandemics – are weighing on the entire planet. In this critical context, US intelligence forecasts help predict future crises, whether humanitarian, economic, environmental, or strategic (For how energy autonomy will shape the emerging new multicentric world, please read the analysis entitled “The Global Multicentralized Competition System & the Way to achieve EU Energy Autonomy“)

The Russian influence

“… We expect Moscow to remain a strong force and a formidable challenge to the United States in a changing geopolitical context over the next decade. Russia will continue to pursue its interests competitively, sometimes conflictingly and provocatively, including pushing for domination in Ukraine and other “neighboring countries”, while exploring opportunities for a more stable relationship with Washington. (…) Russia uses corruption as an effective foreign policy tool to advance its geopolitical goals and gain influence in other countries. However, corruption is also a long-term domestic vulnerability, as well as an obstacle to Russia’s economic performance and ability to attract investment. (…)

This means that its economic relations with China are likely to become volatile. Nevertheless, we believe that Russia will remain the United States’s largest and most powerful adversary in weapons of mass destruction in the near future as it expands and modernizes its nuclear weapons capabilities and enhances its strategic and non-strategic weapons capabilities. . (…) Russia has one of the most threatening foreign influences on the United States, using its intelligence services, proxies, and large-scale influence tools to try to divide the West and increase its influence around the world. as it seeks to undermine US global standing, fuel divisiveness within the US, and influence American voters and policymakers. (…)…. “, The report states, among other things. NO without emphasizing that our region in general will be one of the most vulnerable to anti-democratic and propaganda attacks but also to problems that will arise from health and environmental crises.

Conclusion: As the world moves towards 2040, it will become extremely slippery and democratic Europe now has millions of reasons to strengthen its entity and its cultural prestige.