With the outbreak of war in Ukraine, a domino of European developments was created.
First, the EU came out of a period of unforgivable inactivity and began to face huge problems. For example, it decided to finance with 500 million euros a first shipment of weapons systems to the tested Ukraine, while aiming to drastically reduce its energy dependence on Russia by 2027.
There has also been serious co-ordination in imposing financial sanctions on Russia and receiving refugees from Ukraine, whose number has already exceeded 3,000,000.
The fact that the EU “Waking up” does not mean that it will prove to be fast and effective. It has acquired the political will to do something extremely important, but it still has the same structural problems and the same differences of opinion that limit its effectiveness.
Secondly, Germany has decided to change its strategy towards Russia on defense issues as well. Social Democrat Chancellor Soltz, driven by negative developments, abandoned Merkel’s compromise strategy, which he saw as satisfying Putin (and Erdogan) to ensure reconciliation and calm.
By decision of Soltz, the Nord Stream 2 pipeline was abandoned until recently, which would increase Germany’s energy dependence on Russia.
Poland and Ukraine have strongly protested the decision to build the pipeline, with Chancellor Merkel claiming it was a business plan with no geopolitical dimension.
Extremely important is Solz’s decision to increase Germany’s defense spending. Although Germany had pledged – within NATO – to increase its defense spending to 2% of GDP, Merkel kept it below 1.5% of GDP with a sterile fiscal logic. The Social Democrats, Greens and Liberals in Germany’s coalition government have decided that Merkel’s augmentation is unavoidable. In addition, the German government has pledged to buy F-35 fighter jets from the United States capable of carrying nuclear weapons.
Third, Putin’s offensive against Ukraine has dramatically strengthened the role of Poland, Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania within the EU.
These are countries that have suffered under the Soviet yoke and have been warning – for a long time – of Putin’s aggressive dispositions, without their arguments influencing Brussels’ decisions.
Poland’s role is now leading within the EU. because it has great influence in the Baltic Republics, but also among the so-called Visegrad countries.
It is noteworthy that the Prime Minister of Poland visited Kyiv in very difficult conditions, accompanied by two other European colleagues. Poland is also in favor of the delivery of Soviet-style military equipment to Ukraine through the United States and, more generally, to a more decisive response to the Russian invaders.
Washington does not agree with all of Warsaw’s proposals, believing that they could lead to an uncontrollable escalation of the military confrontation with Russia, which is a nuclear superpower.
Poland’s growing influence within the EU leads the European Commission to take a softer stance on the violation of European rule of law by the super-conservative Polish government.
An additional reason for the strengthening of Poland’s specific weight within the EU. is the fact that it receives about two thirds of the refugees from Ukraine.
Fourth, the Russian invasion of Ukraine also affects the attitude of northern European countries, which have distanced themselves from the common European defense and NATO initiatives.
Denmark is holding a referendum to approve its participation in the joint European defense effort. Neutral Sweden starred in Ukraine’s equipment to counter Russian invaders. Finland is moving away from so-called Finnishization and is likely to take the initiative to join NATO.
Fifth, the intensity of the crisis is such that the tone of the confrontation between the United Kingdom and the EU has fallen in terms of implementing what was agreed on their post-Brexit relationship.
Through the Ukrainian crisis, Europeans have come to realize the strategic importance of the United Kingdom. Boris Johnson’s Conservative government was the first to send weapons systems to Ukraine and agreed with the United States to impose an embargo on Russian oil and gas imports. The British are showing the way to the Europeans in dealing with Russia’s aggression. For their part, they see the need for better consultation with Europeans on issues of synchronizing economic sanctions, managing refugee flows from Ukraine and developing defense co-operation. In short, they recognize the need for multifaceted cooperation. British reservations about this cooperation paved the way for Brexit.
The Geopolitical changes within the wider space of Europe
The war in Ukraine is causing upheavals in the European region as well.
Moldova, Georgia and, of course, Ukraine have applied for express membership in the EU. They believe that in this way they will link their economy with the European one, will reduce their dependence on the Russian economy and will ensure the politico-military protection of the EU. against Russia.
Ukraine has already lost Crimea – which was annexed by Russia – and eastern regions controlled by Russian-speaking separatists. Moldova has lost the Russian-speaking region of Transnistria. Georgia lost 20% of its territory in the 2008 war with Russia, which is also controlled by Russian-speaking separatists.
The EU wants to meet the request of the three countries. But the process is long overdue, and the political and institutional obstacles that need to be overcome are extremely important.
The war in Ukraine is also causing tension in the Western Balkans. Serbia, which is running in the April 3rd presidential election, in which Vucic is expected to be re-elected, is pursuing a provocatively pro-Russian stance on a country seeking EU membership. The recollection of the 1999 NATO bombings does not allow the President and the government to stand firmly on the side of the EU. in the confrontation with Russia. Serbia is not involved in the economic embargo, nor does it enforce a flight ban on Russian aircraft.
Serbia’s stance shows the great Russian influence in that country, while instability is growing in Bosnia and Herzegovina, where Serbs have become virtually autonomous and do not cooperate with Muslims and Croats.
The “return” of Turkey to the West?
The Russian invasion of Ukraine created the conditions for the upgrading of Turkey’s role.
NATO considers Turkey’s participation in the Alliance to be of strategic importance and is doing everything it can to satisfy it. It is characteristic that Turkey does not participate in the financial sanctions against Russia and advertises its effort to help, without compensation, the Russian banks to overcome the consequences of their expulsion from the international payment system Swift.
The Ukrainians say they are extremely pleased with Turkey’s stance and the fact that about 40 Bayraktar drones were procured from it. Ukraine wants Turkey and Israel as mediators against Russia, while proposals for Ukraine’s future security recognize the role of guarantor for Turkey.
Turkey’s strategic importance makes Europeans forget – for the time being – their criticism of the nature of the Erdogan regime and its aggressive moves at the international level, even to the detriment of Greece and Cyprus.
China vs USA
The war in Ukraine is evolving into a European crisis that will strategically benefit the United States and China. The two superpowers are expected to be the big winners of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Europeans now recognize the importance of US protection through NATO to Russia and are rushing to adapt. They are increasing military spending in line with their NATO commitments and coordinating as best they can with the United States.
At the same time, proposals for a common European defense and so-called strategic autonomy take second place, as everyone recognizes that the US and NATO offer strong security guarantees against Russia.
The United States has far more energy potential than the EU, which is why it is leading the effort to impose an energy embargo on Russia. The more difficult it becomes to manage the international energy crisis, the greater the US’s economic comparative advantage over the EU.
The US withdrawal from Afghanistan has been interpreted by many Europeans as a harbinger of American resignation from world hegemony. But based on what is happening in Russia and Ukraine, the Americans are coming back stronger, having been relieved of the financial and military burdens of their stalemate in Afghanistan.
Their aim is the economic confrontation with China and the limitation of the strengthening of the influence of the second superpower. Imposition of NATO discipline in the EU and tackling Russia’s aggression against Ukraine is a kind of introduction to the historical confrontation with China.
China is coming out of the war strengthened in Ukraine, because Russia is obliged to rely on it to limit the consequences of its isolation from the West.
China is willing to support Russia financially by offering it a market for oil and gas and making it as easy as possible to circumvent financial constraints due to the exclusion of most Russian banks from the Swift system.
The United States has warned China that it will face new sanctions if it provides financial, much more military, support to Russia. The Chinese say they will not succumb to economic pressure but will respond in the event of new sanctions with countermeasures.
The World Developments
It is clear, however, that the war in Ukraine is creating a global domino of developments. The United States is opening up to Venezuelan dictator Maduro and pushing back for a nuclear deal with Iran from which it withdrew under Trump to reduce any dependence on Russian oil.
Openings are also being made in the direction of Saudi Arabia, which cooperates with Russia in controlling oil production under the so-called OPEC +. At present, the Saudis are not responding and have taken advantage of the strengthening of their role to carry out 81 executions on the same day without serious protests this time from the US and the EU.
Japan, South Korea and Australia are rallying around the US in the confrontation with China for wider influence in the Indian and Pacific regions. The South Koreans have elected a “tough” former corruption prosecutor to the presidency, while the Japanese are even worried about acquiring – directly or indirectly – a nuclear arsenal.
A special case is the extremely dynamic, from an economic point of view, Taiwan, which is considered a possible target of China since according to the official doctrine of the regime it is part of the territories of China.
Russia’s attack on Ukraine somewhat reinforces the scenario of a violent reunification of Taiwan with China. On the other hand, the great difficulties faced by Russian troops in Ukraine show how difficult it will be for a military operation against Taiwan, which has a modern armed forces with US weapons systems and a US security guarantee.
Finally, India’s over-understanding of Putin’s aggressive moves and its willingness to work with Russia to tackle Western economic sanctions are striking. Most political analysts conclude that India reaffirms its non-aligned role and avoids upsetting Russia with its own confrontation with China in mind.
