Yesterday’s developments in Ukraine have increased the likelihood of an armed conflict between the country and Russia. Russia has been mobilizing troops on the border with Ukraine for weeks, with Kiev mobilizing to counter possible Russian intervention.
In August 2014, the Russian armored vehicles that entered Ukraine were organized into eight Battalion Tactical Group (BTG) formations formed on the basis of conventional Battalions, Epilarchies or Motorized Battalions, but reinforced with single and strong. Supported by Electronic Warfare Battalions and cross-border artillery fire from Russian territory, the BTGs were violently attacked by Ukrainian ground forces at the battles of Ilovaisk and Debaltseve and the siege of Luhansk and Donetsk airport.
US intelligence has concluded that Russia is gathering up to 175,000 troops around Ukraine – with analysts estimating that 50-100 BTGs are being raised for a possible war.
In fact, satellite images, from political satellites, and videos posted on social media had already begun to reveal the ominous troop movements weeks earlier. Essentially, the accumulation of troops involves the transfer of individual BTGs and artillery units from three armies, en masse to three areas adjacent to Ukraine.
Most of the 41st Combined Arms Army is concentrated in Yelnya, tanks and infantry of the selected 1st Guards Tank Army are concentrated in Pogonovo, near Voronezh, next to northeastern Ukraine, artillery and infantry of the 58th Army and at the land border in Rostov – on – Don.
Fortunately, satellite images so far show the newly arrived units parked tens of miles away from the border instead of being deployed to a starting point in scattered battle formations. However, the Russian formations are close enough to the border to achieve an operational surprise. Information has revealed the development of logistical and medical means in the border area that contribute little to the diplomatic effort, but are a precondition for a major land attack. How and if Russia can use these forces concentrated around Ukraine is the subject of another analysis.
What is Battalion Tactical Group (BTG)?
A Russian Regiment / Infantry or Tank Brigade usually has three maneuvering units. The means of the Brigade / Regiment can be gathered and form one or two BTGs with an average of 800 men each.
A BTG usually consists of three Motorized Infantry Battalions of one Infantry Battalion (each with 11 BMP or BTR-80/82 personnel carriers), but is reinforced by a 10-Tank Tank Material, usually T-72B3. For BTG armor, the ratio is reversed.
Both types of BTGs are reinforced by two or three 122- and 152-mm self-propelled rocket-propelled grenades and / or self-propelled guns (total artillery systems: 12-18 elements, a huge volume of fire support for a Battalion level unit).
In addition, a BTG can incorporate one or two Self-propelled Anti-Aircraft Artillery, an Anti-Tank Battalion with long-range guided missiles, a Combat Engineer Squadron and an Electronic Warfare and Reconnaissance Squadron. All of this gives the BTG a wide toolkit of capabilities to deal with regular problems without having to seek support from higher levels.
A US Army study sought to identify the strengths and weaknesses of BTGs. In general, BTGs are effective in quickly concentrating their combat power at a specific point on the front line, attacking on-site defense forces with their enormous firepower, and exploiting fractures with maneuvering units. A BTG surveillance device can effectively track a remote point for direct fatal artillery strikes, but does not provide surveillance at a wider level of defense capability.
However, BTGs do not have the strength and size to defend wider areas or engage in a protracted battle of wear and tear in urban areas that tend to be personnel-based and rely on lower-quality allied forces (naughty, mercenary, reserve, etc.) for the protection of the sides, the control of the attackers and the security of the recently occupied areas.
Artillery Units
In addition to the BTGs, Russia has developed long-range artillery brigades with BM-27, BM-30 rocket launchers and Iskander ballistic missiles. These powerful fire support devices can destroy targets tens of miles away (Iskander, over 300).
While artillery fire is seen as an aid to decisive action by maneuvering forces in Western military theory, Russian dogma sees artillery as the primary tool for destroying enemy forces, with maneuvering elements then “sweeping” the forces. .
In the 2014-2015 battles in Ukraine, the Russian artillery proved to be particularly deadly and responded well, thanks to the use of artillery observers, UAVs and electronic warfare systems. The concentration of artillery around Ukraine could allow a violent barrage against Ukraine without even having to move / invade the BTGs on Ukrainian territory.
The following is a summary of the troops detected by satellite imagery and social media images as of December 15, 2021, based on a detailed list maintained by military analyst Konrad Muzyka of Rochan Consulting. Keep in mind that there are definitely other reclassifications of forces that have not been discovered and reported by open sources.
- The Northwest Approach: Yelnya
Local Forces:
The 144th Motorized Infantry Division of the 20th Combined Arms Army in Smolensk, consisting of two Infantry Regiments and an Armored Regiment in Klintsy and Yelnya.
(* Note that local Divisions also have Artillery Regiments and other combat support units not listed for brevity.)
External aid to Yelnya:
6-7 BTG from the 35th, 55th and 74th Motorized Infantry Brigade and the 90th Armored Division.
1 Iskander Ballistic Missile Battalion.
1 Battalion of TOS-1A thermobaric missile systems
1 Artillery Squadron with BM-27 Uragan rocket launchers
The influx of troops is most intense in Yelnya, although it is located 150 miles north of the Ukrainian border. However, forces in Yelnya could move south or pass through Belarus – with permission from Lukashenko’s dictator – and threaten the Ukrainian capital (Kiev) or even enter western Ukraine via Belarus.
These forces may be more aimed at capturing Ukrainian forces in western and central Ukraine, preventing the reinforcement of eastern Ukraine, rather than occupying permanent territory.
- The Northeast Approach: Pogonovo
Local Forces:
The 3rd Motorized Infantry Division of the 20th Combined Arms Army, with three or four Infantry Brigades / Regiments and tanks stationed around Valyuki, Soloti and Boguchar.
External Aid to the Pogonovo Training Field:
2 Armored BTGs and 2 Motorized BTGs from the 2nd Motorized Infantry Division and the 4th Armored Division.
1 Artillery Squadron from the 288th Artillery Brigade.
1 Battalion of TOS-1A thermobaric missile systems.
They all come from the select 1st Armored Guards Army based around Moscow with the highest quality equipment, such as T-80 tanks.
Buk-M2 medium-range air defense systems from the 49th Air Defense Brigade of the same Army appeared to arrive in Pogonovo on 8 December.
Pogonovo is an educational district near Voronezh, located 100 miles north of Ukraine. The forces there could be directed directly south to expand the zone held by pro-Russian forces in eastern Ukraine or could move southwest to threaten Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest city.
Two more BTGs from the 25th and 138th Motorized Infantry Brigades of the 6th Combined Arms Army were located at Postoyalye Dvory (near Kursk), 120 miles north of Kiev.
- Crimea and Rostov-on-Don: The Southern Approach
Local Forces:
The 150th Motorized Infantry Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army (consisting of two Infantry Regiments and two Armored Regiments) is based in Rostov-on-Don and Persianovskiy. An additional Motorized Infantry Brigade is located in Volgograd (formerly Stalingrad).
Two Brigades are based in Crimea, the 126th Mechanized Coast Guard Brigade and the 810th Marine Infantry Brigade. Facilities to house the motorized paratroopers of the 56th Airborne Regiment are also under construction in Crimea.
External aid:
Ballistic missiles, artillery and air defense elements of the 58th Combined Arms Army have remained in Crimea since last spring.
1 BTG armor from the 42nd Motorized Infantry Division of the 58th Combined Arms Army also appears to be moving towards the Crimea.
2 BTGs from the 205th and 34th Motorized Infantry Brigades of the 49th Combined Arms Army are on their way to Crimea.
Forces in Crimea could carry out deadly rocket and artillery attacks or land in lightly protected areas. “Forces in Rostov-on-Don may try to retake Mariupol and from there attempt to occupy Berdyansk and Melitopol to create a land corridor to the Crimean peninsula.”
