Amid complete political uncertainty, Libyans celebrated the 11th anniversary of the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi on February 16th. Eleven years after the Revolution and a year and a half after the ceasefire agreement, Libya has not only not yet achieved relative stability, but on the contrary the situation has become more complicated. An important role in this was played by the decision of the House of Representatives to vote on February 10 as the new Prime Minister Fathi Bashagha.
The change of National Unity Government (GNU) led by Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh has been hotly debated since the failure of last December’s presidential and parliamentary elections. The newly elected Fathi Bashagha has been given a two-week term and will have to appear before the Libyan parliament by Monday 28 February to ask for a vote of confidence in his government. However, Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh (who despite being banned was the presidential candidate in the elections that did not take place) does not intend to resign and so the country currently has two prime ministers.
Τhe political course of Fathi Bashagha
Fathi Bashagha is no stranger to Libyan politics. Originally from Misrata, he served as interior minister in the Government of National Accord (GNA) of Fayez Al Sarraj, while maintaining close ties with Turkey. He was a presidential candidate in last December’s elections. Intense processes preceded and background until the election of the new prime minister. Fathi Bashagha himself had contacts with Libyan Parliament Speaker Aguila Saleh Issa and Marshal Khalifa Haftar, both of whom are presidential candidates.
He seems to enjoy the support of Russia. Fathi Bashagha was presented as a candidate who could unite the Libyans, while he clarified that he will not be a candidate for president when the elections take place. For the February 10 process to be valid, the consent of the head of the Supreme Council of State, Khalid Al Mishri, was required.
After a secret meeting between Aguila Saleh Issa and Khalid Al Mishri in Morocco earlier this month, the latter agreed to replace the government, making it clear that “this is not a priority for us”. Our background information states that Khalid Al Mishri is the man of Turkey in Libya and not Abdel Hamid Dbeibeh, as some believe. The fact that after the election of a new Prime Minister he has started to distance himself from the procedures raises questions about what his position will be during the vote of confidence in the new Government.
Turkey seems to support both Fathi Bashagha and Abdul Hamid Dbiebeh. Turkey seems to support Abdul Hamid Dbiebeh, although it has deliberately left the impression that it supports the new situation. A useful element in maintaining Turkish support for Abdul Hamid Dbiebeh is the identification of views between Turkey and the UAE on Libya. The UAE clearly supports Abdul Hamid Dbiebeh, although its role in the country is declining. Russia and Egypt have expressed clear support for the Fathi Bashagha government, while the same seems to be true of France, which is moving more discreetly.
If Fathi Bashagha manages to win a vote of confidence from the Libyan Parliament on February 28, it is estimated that Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh will be forced to resign. If he does not receive a vote of confidence or the Supreme State Council of Khalid Al Misri declares a suspended procedure, then there is a risk of two parallel governments in Libya.
Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh, following the election of a new Prime Minister, stressed the need for parliamentary elections next June. On the other hand, Fathi Bashagha Toumba’s roadmap for the dual elections lasted 14 months. Definitely, the above developments remove the ballot boxes from the immediate time horizon. The creation of two parallel poles of power and the dispersal of power with the militias make the environment in Libya even more unstable. However, people with knowledge of the data estimate that it will be difficult to repeat a generalized civil war. Of course, this does not mean that developments have not caused concern. Several countries supporting the Fathi Bashagha government have called for a vote of confidence to be held earlier so as not to provoke incidents and violence.
