The government of Chancellor Olaf Scholz has been facing great challenges since day one. And as has often been the case in German history, many of them are in the East. These are the new eastern issues of Germany.
Germany’s first eastern issue lies within its own borders, in the former East Germany. In the September general election, almost a quarter of the vote in Saxony and Thuringia went to the far right, the xenophobic Alternative for Germany (afd). Just this week, there was a spontaneous protest against compulsion, organized by far-right activists. The underlying social psychology has more in common with some parts of post-communist central Europe, such as Poland and Hungary, than with, say, Hamburg or Stuttgart. Scholz’s agenda for respecting those who feel marginalized or despised is crucial at this point.
The second new Eastern issue is the erosion of the Republic and the rule of law in Poland and Hungary. Germany’s economic presence in these countries was enormous. Under Chancellor Angela Merkel, Berlin was largely responsible for an overly lenient line against the populist leaders of those countries. The Coalition Agreement has very strong positions on European unity and respect for the rule of law. Will this government proclamation continue? Will Germany become a staunch supporter of pan-European action to restore democracy in Hungary and the rule of law in Poland?
The third and fourth issues respectively are directly related. They concern the member states between the EU and Russia – Ukraine, Belarus and Russia itself. The balance between relations with Russia and those with the other countries of Central and Eastern Europe is one of the oldest stakes in German policy in the East. The last 300 years have seen every possible alternative, including the most extreme. The violent, utter division of Poland between Hitler’s Germany and Stalin’s Soviet Union along a secretly agreed line in the autumn of 1939. The old ghosts are easily awakened in European minds.
The agreement of the new governing coalition is remarkable. It sets out the relationship with Ukraine and Belarus immediately after that with the US and the UK in terms of importance and before that with Russia. He blamed Belarussian opposition for the new election and said that Russian intervention in Belarus’s President Alexander Lukashenko was unacceptable. It promises to support the restoration of Ukraine’s full territorial integrity and sovereignty and calls for an end to any attempt to destabilize the country.
US intelligence says the image of Russian troops huddled between the Russian and Ukrainian borders looks like a serious invasion force. The Russia-Ukraine issue is the most urgent but in the long run the most important is China. Is Germany ready to support a firm European Union response to China’s attempt to divide and rule within Europe or is it too scared to hurt its own economic relationship with China?
