USAF is preparing a study to reduce the initial requirement for 1763 F-35A Lighting II fighter jets. The study is being carried out to prepare the defense budget for the financial year 2023 and the decision to reduce the types of fighter aircraft in service, from already seven to four types in 2030.
The four possible types of fighter jets are:
• 6th generation NGAD (Next Generation Air Dominance)
• F-22 Raptor
• F-35A Lighting II
• F-15X Eagle II
with the aim of completely replacing the older F-15 & F-16 fighter jets.
If the F-16 Viper is replaced or remains, it will catalyze the final receipt number of the F-35A Lighting II, which was chosen as a replacement for the F-16. It is certain that the study will indirectly propose the reduction of the number of F-35As through the presence of different fighter-type mixtures, in specific numbers for each type.
The question is if the USAF does not acquire the 1763 F-35A Lighting II how much will it acquire? In 1991, the USAF had about 4,000 fighter jets. Today it has 2000 fighter jets with an average age of about 28 years. At the same time, Russia and China are constantly being reinforced with new fighter jets.
In essence, the USAF needs high-capacity, high-transformation-load capacity, and economically operational fighter jets.
Why do we think that the number of F-35A Lightning IIs that USAF will receive will be less than 1000?
USAF placed a large order at the beginning of the project to justify the high development costs of the F-35A Lighting II technologies and to address any uncertainty in its sales to foreign countries.
But as the F-35A Lighting II is now sold in all countries, the increase in exports allows the USAF to greatly reduce its own order. If the original plan was to sell a total of 3,000 F-35A Lighting II fighter jets, and with allied countries requesting about 2,000 fighters, then the USAF could reduce the number to 1,000 F-35A Lighting II fighter jets.
As the US allies with the first Arab and Asian countries (UAE, Saudi Arabia, Taiwan, India, Qatar, etc .) promise very high premiums and double/triple price payment to overtake the waiting list of countries that want to get the F-35A Lighting II (order today with Fly-away price $78m and pick up in 6-7 years), the US to satisfy those countries that do not want to wait in line, accept reduced orders of the USAF and later to be picked up by the US, and despite the fact that the US refuses sales with all intensity.
On the other hand, the US does not need so many supersonic aircraft, and the new technologies developed for the F-35A Lighting II, because they have now moved to another technological level, do not want to pass these new technologies to the F-35A Lighting II exported, and incorporate them into NGAD.
Given that they will have four types of state-of-the-art fighter jets and as we described them above and knowing that the US is technologically ahead of other countries:
• Do not need such many F-35A Lighting II
• They keep a relatively small number of F-35A Lighting II to “police” the airspaces.
For this reason, we conclude that the US is rightly moving towards the development of NGAD.
