The internal situation in Ukraine is extremely complex. Society is visibly tired, while at the same time it does not seem to retain hope for a drastic change in the operational data on the field, beyond the “scorched earth” the next day. This is betrayed by the continuous violent incidents between ordinary citizens and conscripts, who are trying to capture young disobedient people in order to train them – as much as possible in such conditions – and send them to the front.
On the one hand, the defensive war effort has been based on strengthening Ukrainian national consciousness. On the other hand, however, the heavy losses for the combatants on the battlefields with the death of hundreds of thousands of young people, in a war that has now lasted longer than World War II, raises a serious question about the next day for Ukraine. When it will be.
On the political level, Volodymyr Zelensky’s power is no longer stable. Strong indications of widespread corruption in his inner circle have contributed greatly to the damage to his popularity. The internal political conflict and the great interests at stake make serious legal adventures almost inevitable in the aftermath of the war. Zelensky knows this and has every reason to cling to power until he secures his personal future. But the suitors are both increasing and powerful…
The would-be successors are increasing and internal disputes are undermining the cohesion of his government, as the conflict between the young, popular Minister of Defense, Fedorov, and the Chief of the Armed Forces, General Shirsky, showed. The first was dismissed, while rumors are circulating of the immediate dismissal of the leader as well… To the picture should be added the obvious preference of Europe to maintain a war that is constantly wearing down Russia. The difference is that in it the war costs money and in Ukraine coffins. How much longer will this situation continue? Nobody knows.
In the interior of Russia
However, this war also has serious internal dimensions on the Russian side. It should be noted, as a preliminary point, that recently the Russian media have been talking about a war, as until now the official description of the involvement as a “special military operation” prevailed, referring to an escalation. Reality, of course, has blatantly refuted the illusions that prevailed in various pillars of power in Moscow, resulting in errors by the country’s leadership.
As a result of these errors and although the nature of the Russian regime allows room for concealing the real situation, for some time now the internal frictions have become clear. The inability to achieve the objective goals, even when they were adjusted in the most rational way after the initial phase of the war, when the theory of… a walk prevailed, with the addition of the fatigue of Russian society from the war, intensifies the problem with each passing day.
An extremely worrying phenomenon that has appeared is the proliferation of publications – analyses by experts that were not characterized by “extremism”, where the leadership is urged to “dynamically clear up” the situation, regardless of what this might entail. It is possible that in Western capitals the power of Vladimir Putin has been targeted, but the new trend that is constantly gaining ground, rather ranks him among the most moderate voices heard in Moscow!
At the same time, the economy of the Russian Federation is facing problems. Although the sanctions have never led to the “strangulation” and collapse that Western media constantly foretold, they have obviously caused economic destabilization, which is progressively becoming more difficult to control. Maintaining this situation maximizes Moscow’s dependence on Beijing, despite the smooth development of bilateral relations, as demonstrated by Putin’s relatively recent official visit to China.
The situation that has developed for the two belligerents
The situation inside Ukraine and Russia is particularly complicated. This is from inevitable to self-evident, after so many years of military conflicts and the successful short-circuiting of the quantitative advantage of the Russians over the Ukrainians, apparently with massive Western technological assistance. Ukraine has become a “laboratory” where new weapons and tactics are tested, while the… findings give the new direction to the global defense industry.
However, the internal situation in the two countries is the most unpredictable factor that reliably threatens to derail the calculations made in the capitals of the Western world. If there is a historical lesson that everyone should remember at every step, it is that plans on paper are rarely confirmed on the ground.
At best, some variation emerges. More or less close to the assumptions of the original plan. In such an environment, the internal political landscape of the -officially- belligerent countries, hides the potential for a more comprehensive reversal and the emergence of “side” problems, which in turn can evolve into a new, much more dangerous conflict…
