The Air of Liberalism conquers Belarus

Alexander Lukashenko, Belarus’s twenty-six-year President and leader, has been agonizing over his rule since the night of 9^th August and until today after his “election victory”, because the main streets of many Belarusian cities have been filled with protesters directly contesting his victory in the Presidential elections.

Rallies involving 200000 citizens urgently calling for his resignation. Even the workers of the state-owned company MZTK who believed they were supporting him turned their backs on him by shouting “resign”. Mass strikes are regime in Belarus, giving the feeling that the countdown to the fall of the regime has begun.

by T.C.

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The Reasons for Lukashenko’s Long-Term stay in the Presidency

The Alexander Lukashenko governments, unlike other governments of the countries of the former Socialist Eastern Europe, refused to implement economic and social shock treatments and as they were implemented in the early 1990s in Russia, Bulgaria, Romania, Georgia, etc.

They have not privatised state-owned industries and agricultural production, making these sectors the pillars of Belarus’s new economy. At the same time, it has maintained the social state to a considerable extent through the provision of brave allowances, avoiding the social reactions that have existed in the other countries of Eastern Europe.

These policies in themselves retained the long-term support enjoyed by Alexander Lukashenko from the people of Belarus.

At the same time, however, it made the most of The West-Russia competition. This was achieved through:

1. The Treaty on Equal Rights of Citizens between Belarus and Russia which was signed in December 1998, covering employment, and access to medical care and education. This Treaty predicted for the two states to unite in a single state, which was never implemented because Lukashenko accused Russia of “annexation” of his country by Russia
2. Securing subsidies and gas from Russia.
3. By making the EU believe that it would gain more influence in Belarus through it he secured brave loans to his country.
4. Following Russia’s annexation of Crimea (Ukraine) in 2014, the EU lifted any sanctions it had imposed on Belarus and Lukashenko personally.

The fact that President Lukashenko remains in power is due to the support given to him by Russian President Vladimir Putin and the fact that he controls the army and security forces. But both are expected to be overturned against him soon.

The reality and the air of Liberalism that conquers Belarus

The people of Belarus and her society in general have changed. They are now looking for all those policies that will pull their country’s ailing economy out of the quagmire, giving them more chances and opportunities for creativity and wealth generation among the country’s citizens.

These policies can certainly be achieved by the fall of the Lukashenko regime and if the incoming parliamentary opposition implements liberal policies in both the country’s economy and society.

The reality reflected in the maps shows that Belarus is a country located between the EU and Russia. The people of Belarus have close historical ties to Russia and since the first language in the country is Russian and that is why they consider the Russians a brother nation. 50% of the country’s exports go to Russia and in energy Belarus depends on gas imports from Russia.

Belarus is a great opportunity for the EU and Russia to normalise their relations. It is definite that the Russian President will pull the rug on Lukashenko after losing legitimacy in the eyes of his people. It will then promote the opposition as a government and if it does not challenge Belarus’s traditional relations with Russia.

Liberal policies to be implemented after Lukashenko fall

The package of liberal policies to implement in the economy should include policies such as:

1. Mass privatisation of all state agencies and enterprises.
2. Creating from the proceeds of privatizations a large capital-liquidity cushion for the implementation of expansionary fiscal policies in difficult fiscal times.
3. Deep reductions in government spending mainly on the security forces and the armed forces and not on the social state.
4. Support the social state by compulsory acquisition of private health insurance for those working in both the private and public sectors, which private health insurance will supplement public social security state.
5. Create a NHS-National Health System that is competitive with the private health sector.
6. Technological upgrading of all state-to-citizen services and reduction of the human resources of the public sector.
7. Only the security forces and the army will belong and finance by the central government.
8. Privatisation of Higher Education
9. A drastic reduction in tax rates (almost zero tax rates) for companies that choose to invest in the real Belarusian economy and remain there for ten consecutive years.
10. Liberal changes to the country’s Constitution and the country’s political map, aimed, among other things, at limiting to eight years of the term of office of the country’s President in order to constantly bring out new political forces that they want to offer to the country.

The EU should not push the parliamentary opposition towards challenging Belarus’s traditional relations with Russia and Russia in turn should not create obstacles and problems to the implementation of liberal policies both in the economy and in society and in the necessary changes to the country’s Constitution.

In this case, Belarus will become the most successful model country for peace and cooperation between Russia and the EU, increasing with geometric progress the probabilities to find solutions on other open fronts such as Ukraine and Georgia without overturning the geopolitical balance between them.