How can someone predict with such precision the developments in the negotiations for control of the Strait of Hormuz, which are causing sharp ups and downs in energy markets with oil supply disruptions, and reap huge profits?
Suspicions of inside information point to the White House… already under investigation by the relevant authorities. Let’s look at the facts.
Large, well-coordinated transactions in global oil markets are once again attracting global attention, after investors placed a $760 million bet on a drop in crude prices minutes before a crucial announcement regarding the Strait of Hormuz.
Data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) showed that on April 17 between 12:24 GMT and 12:25 GMT, traders sold a total of 7,990 Brent futures contracts, with trades valued at around $760 million at the time. The timing aligns with an Iranian announcement.
About 20 minutes later, at 12:45 GMT, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced via X that the Strait of Hormuz would remain open for the duration of the ceasefire period to all commercial vessels, alongside the announcement of a ceasefire in Lebanon.
In accordance with the ceasefire in Lebanon, passage for all commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz is declared fully open for the remainder of the ceasefire, on the coordinated route as previously announced by the Ports and Maritime Organization of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
— Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi) April 17, 2026
In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire, on the coordinated route as already announced by Ports and Maritime Organisation of the Islamic Rep. of Iran.
This pattern has a history
Data shows that similar trades were made repeatedly:
- March 23: ~$500 million before Trump announcement → down ~15%
- April 7: ~$950 million before US-Iran ceasefire
- April 17: ~$760 million before Hormuz announcement
Sixteen bets of $100,000 each accurately predicted the timing of US airstrikes on Iran on February 27.
Later, a single investor would win over $550,000 after betting that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would be overthrown, just minutes before his assassination by Israeli forces.
On April 7, just before Donald Trump announced a temporary ceasefire with Iran, traders bet $950 million that oil prices would fall. And they did.
The density of events on weekends has also been noted, as major oil futures markets (such as Brent and WTI) trade almost 24 hours a day, but open on Sunday evening (European time) and operate continuously Monday through Friday.
Other well-timed bets have also accurately predicted the exact timing of major developments in the US-Israeli war with Iran, generating huge profits and raising concerns about possible insider trading.
Betting – once largely limited to sporting events – has now expanded to include contracts on news events, where inside information could give some traders an advantage.
Betting markets
The proliferation of online betting markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi has made it possible to place bets on almost any news event. At the same time, it has become easier than ever to buy commodity derivatives, such as oil futures, where traders bet on where the price will move in the future.
Leaders of some US federal agencies and members of Congress have said they want to crack down on suspicious trading activity taking place in different markets, but it is unclear how much progress regulators will make.
“Wild West”
For those who closely follow trading patterns, the intense activity preceding these events seems too great to be attributed to chance.
Not only the timing, but also the size of these bets suggests that someone likely had inside information.
At the same time, the CFTC is in a standoff with U.S. states over who has the authority to regulate these markets.
The situation resembles a “Wild West phase,” which has now extended to financial markets.
Risky Bets
Federal law prohibits federal employees from using nonpublic information for personal gain.
A bipartisan group has proposed legislation that would prohibit members of Congress from participating in such bets. However, experts point out that the law on insider trading is complicated and new technology makes it difficult to detect.
The problem is that these transactions are made via blockchain and anonymously, so it is difficult to identify who is behind them.
The stakes are high: such practices can undermine trust in both markets and governments.
Unlike corporate insider trading, here the government itself can influence reality. Real decisions can be influenced by financial bets.
