The war in Iran with the launch of the military operation “Epic Fury” by the United States forces and the simultaneous attack “Roaring Lion” by Israel on February 28, 2026, marked the beginning of a period of turmoil on the global energy map.
What began as a precision military operation aimed at neutralizing Tehran’s nuclear infrastructure and ballistic missile arsenal quickly evolved into a conflict with broader implications for shipping and international hydrocarbon trade.
Asymmetric warfare
Initially, Operation “Epic Fury” was designed with the aim of completely disrupting the Iranian leadership and its military capabilities. The attacks focused on missile bases, airfields, naval facilities, and weapons factories across Iran.
However, Tehran’s strategic choice to respond with asymmetric strikes against the energy infrastructure of neighboring Gulf states changed the game. The warning from the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Command that any attack on Iran’s energy infrastructure would lead to the “ignition” of oil fields throughout the region quickly became an operational reality.
Iranian forces, using their extensive network of drones and ballistic missiles, struck critical targets in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Qatar.
Of particular note was the attack on the Ras Tanura refinery in Saudi Arabia on March 2, 2026, and the port of Fujairah in the Emirates the following day, causing massive fires and environmental pollution. This “scorched Gulf” tactic aims to inflict economic damage on Western economies and US allies, making the costs of war unaffordable for the international community.
The strategic closure of the Strait of Hormuz
The most critical point of the conflict remains the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important energy artery. In particular, with a length of 167 kilometers and a width limited to 33 kilometers at its narrowest point, the Strait of Hormuz is the only outlet for oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Gulf producers. Since February 28, Tehran has imposed an informal blockade, threatening to hit any vessel linked to the United States or Israel in the wake of the war.
Maritime traffic has collapsed. While before the conflict an average of 153 ships passed through daily, that number has fallen to just a few ships in recent days. The reported Iranian minelaying of the straits, with an estimated stockpile of between 2,000 and 6,000 mines, has made the passage particularly dangerous for commercial shipping. Overall, the disruption directly affects the flow of 20 million barrels of oil per day, equivalent to 20% of global consumption.
The International Energy Agency’s Historic Intervention
The International Energy Agency (IEA) describes the situation as “the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.” In an effort to prevent a complete destabilization of the markets, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced on March 11, 2026, the release of 400 million barrels of oil from the strategic reserves of its 32 member states.
This is the largest coordinated action in the organization’s 50-year history, more than double the 2022 deployment that followed the invasion of Ukraine.
The participation of member states was unanimous, underlining the seriousness of the situation. The United States is leading the effort by contributing 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), while significant quantities are being released by South Korea (22.46 million barrels), France (14.5 million) and the United Kingdom (13.5 million).
Despite the scale of the intervention, analysts remain cautious. Releasing stocks can only provide temporary relief if safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz is not ensured.
The process of delivering the oil requires at least 13 days, while the full release of the American quantities will take about 120 days. In a market that is facing a 16 million barrel-per-day shortfall due to the blockade, adding 1.4 million to 2 million barrels per day is unlikely to help significantly.
The risk to shipping
In addition to energy stocks, the Trump administration has activated an unprecedented financial tool to support shipping. Through the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), a $20 billion reinsurance facility has been created. The goal is for the state to act as a “sovereign backstop” for private insurers that provide coverage for ships and cargo in the Persian Gulf.
Ultimately, Chubb Limited was chosen as the lead insurance partner in an effort to reduce war risk premiums, which had skyrocketed 12-fold in a matter of days.
However, the effectiveness of the measure remains debatable. It has been estimated that the actual insurance gap needed to stabilize the market is as much as $352 billion.
The problem is not just financial; as drone attacks and minelaying continue, no insurance policy can guarantee the safety of crews, leading many shipowners to decide to “go dark” or avoid the area altogether.
The industrial footprint of the war
The effects of the war extend far beyond the energy sector. The Middle East is a hub for global heavy industry.
Qatar, one of the world’s largest aluminum producers, has seen its Qatalum plant cut to 60% of capacity. The shutdown of LNG production by QatarEnergy following Iranian attacks on its Ras Laffan facility has left smelters without enough natural gas to run them.
With Gulf states producing 9% of the world’s aluminum and the Strait of Hormuz closed, the metal’s price on the London Stock Exchange has hit a four-year high, threatening supply chains for the automotive and construction industries.
Perhaps the most significant aspect of this war is the impact on global food security. The Gulf produces about 49% of the world’s urea exports and 30% of ammonia. With a third of the world’s fertilizer trade passing through Hormuz, the blockade has sent a price shock through the region. The price of urea has risen by 71% in 90 days, just as farmers in the northern hemisphere are starting spring planting.
Tehran, to support its war machine, is diverting natural gas from petrochemical complexes to the power grid and military bases, disrupting domestic fertilizer production. This, combined with the inability to import grain due to the blockade, has pushed food inflation in Iran close to 100%, with grain stocks lasting less than two months.
The war with the environment as its “victim”
The war in Iran has caused one of the greatest environmental disasters of recent decades. By March 10, 2026, more than 300 pollution incidents directly related to the hostilities had been recorded. Airstrikes on refineries and fuel depots in Tehran caused the phenomenon of “black rain”, where toxic particles and soot precipitated on the urban fabric, putting the health of 10 million people at immediate risk.
In addition, the situation created by the war at sea is equally harmful to the environment. The sinking of at least 43 Iranian ships and attacks on 12 commercial vessels have released huge quantities of oil and chemicals.
The sinking of the Iranian frigate Dena created a 20-kilometer oil slick that threatens sensitive ecosystems. In addition, attacks on desalination plants – which provide drinking water to 100 million people in the region – have caused leaks of hazardous substances such as sulfuric acid and sodium hypochlorite.
The “unknown casualties” of the war in Iran
It seems that macroscopically the war in Iran is bringing a “domino of developments”, as it has significant supra-local and long-term impacts on all aspects of life. Global industry, agriculture and energy are directly affected by the military conflict in Iran and it is unknown how much the size of the ever-increasing impacts may ultimately reach.
