A new report from the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies “Strategic Attack: Maintaining the Air Force’s Capacity to Deny Enemy Sanctuaries” warns that current U.S. bomber acquisition plans do not ensure success in a future conflict with China and calls on the Air Force to acquire at least 200 B-21 Raider stealth bombers.
The think tank argues that a larger fleet is needed to strike the Chinese mainland in the event of a war over Taiwan or other regional allies.
The report says the U.S. lacks the capability to conduct deep strikes against Chinese forces. “The USAF is losing its ability to prevent China from conducting long-range air and missile strikes from operational bases in its hinterland,” the report says.
The deficit, the study says, weakens deterrence and hinders the United States’ ability to prevail in a conflict. It criticizes the Pentagon’s current strategy as limited to denying a rapid Chinese takeover of Taiwan, arguing that such an approach “will not deter Chinese aggression.”
The report calls for a broader strategy that includes airstrikes aimed at eroding and collapsing China’s ability to maintain high-density threat infrastructure in the air, land, and sea domains at extended distances from the mainland.
“A strong offense is the best defense, and a victorious American campaign must include strategies attacks on China’s military leadership, command and control, and long-range combat forces that now threaten the ability of U.S. forces to operate effectively in the Western Pacific,” the report says.
It argues that decades of force reductions and delayed modernization have left U.S. forces unable to deny China’s missile and air power a homeland security infrastructure, reducing its fleet of long-range stealth bombers. To address the gap, the report urges the Air Force to rebuild that capability by procuring at least 200 B-21 bombers as soon as possible.
“B-21s in sufficient numbers are essential to achieving operational advantage in a conflict with China,” the report says. It also recommends procuring at least 300 sixth-generation F-47 aircraft, stating: “At this force size, the F-47’s longer range, greater payload, and stealth capability can give the Air Force a combat advantage over China’s integrated air defense systems.”
“The F-47 and B-21 combined would be capable of striking any target in mainland China, eliminating capabilities critical to the PLA’s air and missile forces,” the report added. Until the B-21 enters full production, it said, the Air Force should not retire any existing B-2 bombers, which are currently the only stealth aircraft capable of penetrating high-density air defenses and striking the most difficult targets.
“The Air Force must shape its forces to defeat Chinese aggression while simultaneously defending the American homeland and deterring nuclear attacks,” the report concluded. “It cannot do this at acceptable levels of risk with its current force mix and inventory.”
