The raid by US special operations forces in the capital of Caracas, Venezuela, which resulted in the arrest of the country’s leader, Nicolas Maduro and his wife, has shocked all of humanity. They are coming on an anniversary! 35 years ago, US forces captured Panamanian dictator Manuel Noriega! Without a doubt, this is another development whose consequences will be particularly felt worldwide. Obviously, they will not be limited to the narrow context of the American continent.
A first general observation is the definitive burial of any illusion about international law and, more generally, anything other than the “law of the strong.” It has always been true, but in transitional periods such as the one the international system is going through in search of a new balance, there are countries that actively seek to impose their interests in every way and those that attempt in every way to erect a wall of deterrence to avoid suffering the consequences.
Monroe Doctrine and other geopolitical regions
The US, with its spectacular and successful military action, is restoring in the most violent way the credibility of the Monroe Doctrine for the exclusivity of “dictating”, literally, the developments in the American continent and is communicating in every direction the new limits that it unilaterally sets for the margins of access and influence by anyone in the American continent.
One could think that something similar, theoretically, could be pursued by China, claiming to set conditions for access to its own “backyard”. Things are much more complicated in the Asia-Pacific region. The US is not alone in containing Chinese hegemonic ambitions. They would hardly leave room for China to move against Taiwan, as it is part of the island chain that indirectly blocks the Chinese from accessing the Pacific. And if it did, the consequences would be dramatic for global security.
Japan is also very strong militarily and is constantly strengthening, in addition to the culture of its society that has nothing to do with Western ones. Australia seems to be constantly deepening its defense relations with the Land of the Rising Sun, as the cooperation for the Mogami frigates showed. Its military power is complementary to that of the United States. South Korea is also strong militarily. However, North Korea, an ally of China and Russia, is an unstable factor armed with nuclear weapons that strengthens deterrence for Beijing and Moscow…
The Case of Russia
In the Trump era, however, it would be reasonable to formulate another thought: The American president’s stance on the war in Ukraine leaves room for Vladimir Putin’s Russian Federation to deal with its own “backyard”. He has clearly distanced himself from the policy of his predecessor, Democrat Joe Biden, and the more “ideological” approach to Moscow. Both presidents wanted cooperation with Moscow to contain China.
Simply put, the Democrats set the overthrow of the Putin regime as a prerequisite, while Trump’s Republicans are either more interested in having a strong central authority, or do not wish to spend time and resources on other scenarios, as they see the future in a new formation of balance and understanding between the powerful, in an informal “directorate” that will determine the future of the world, after they find new balances among themselves.
The Iranians, logically, have already moved their leadership to underground shelters… For so many days together, Netanyahu and Trump discussed everything, including the issue of the Islamic Republic. And these are areas of direct interest for Greek security.
In short, the whole world is changing, and at an accelerating pace. Anyone who cannot read developments correctly will be overcome by them. They will wake up one morning and realize their mistake, but it will be too late. And some will be left with the “satisfaction” that they had understood the situation better than others. However, the damage will have been done.
The conspiracy
Finally, it should be noted that maintaining a wait-and-see attitude is imperative. We will gradually learn more. Although it is mathematically certain that there were accomplices inside the Venezuelan regime – the permission for the CIA to engage in covert operations in Venezuela was openly given by Trump and everyone knows how many options its own modus operandi contains…
However, we should not forget the discussions that were held through informal channels and concerned the voluntary exit of Nicolas Maduro. The probability is small, to be emphasized and with the current evidence it probably looks more like the Noriega case. Such discussions have been held by the US before in the case of Haiti and the Philippines! Simply put, there is a suspicion of collusion. To some extent at least, even though charges have already been brought against him. But let’s look at the reasoning…
If Maduro’s voluntary departure would offer a great victory to Trump, what exchange would justify an even more impressive victory, such as today’s, if of course it had been offered to Trump in the context of negotiations? That is, if hypothetically Maduro had refused to go to Russia or somewhere in the Gulf and had asked to settle in the US and there was consultation on this?
Unless the discussions took place and simply collapsed with Maduro overestimating his capabilities. And this is not unusual with such leaders. In any case, despite the declarations, Maduro was not so naive as not to understand the chances of his regime’s survival in the event of a US attack.
Ideological approaches, as we have mentioned, have no place in today’s world. It remains to be seen whether, after a period of “suffering”, the Maduro couple will be pardoned and live this well, and we… we will see how? The suspicion exists, but it remains a “suspicion”, which may be worth keeping under review, for confirmation or denial. In the near future, it is certain that much more will be learned – or simply seen – that may clarify the picture somewhat.
