Reports surrounding the crash of the Turkish military transport plane in Georgia are becoming increasingly sensitive, especially in light of the fact that both governments (in Ankara and Tbilisi) are trying to cover up the details of the incident.
According to information that has emerged in the last few hours, we have the following new data:
1. Identity of the passengers
The “executive echelon” of the intelligence services. There is strong evidence that the plane was not only carrying a regular crew, but also a delegation of senior officers from the MIT (Turkish Intelligence Agency) and special forces.
Mission: The delegation is believed to have been en route to a security coordination meeting in Georgia regarding the “logistics corridor” connecting Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan.
Turkish concern: The disclosure of the names of the dead could reveal secret operations that Turkey is conducting in the Caucasus region against Russian influence.
2. Cause of the crash
Strong suspicion of electronic sabotage as a result of the operation of electronic warfare (EW) equipment: While officially speaking of “severe weather conditions”, aviation experts point to unusual data:
GPS disturbances: Very high levels of navigation system disturbances were recorded in the crash area, characteristic of Russian electronic warfare systems deployed in the South Ossetia region (a region in Georgia under Russian control).
Sudden fall: The plane disappeared from radar without a distress signal, which strengthens the hypothesis that the plane’s systems were disrupted in such a way that the pilots lost their complete spatial orientation (Spatial Disorientation).
3. The link to the escalation with Russia
The timing of the crash – coinciding with the downing of Russian drones in Turkey and the attack on tankers in the Black Sea – leads commentators in Turkey to assess that it was a silent Russian “retaliatory” attack.
The message to Erdogan: “If you continue to help the Ukrainians in the Black Sea, we will damage your most valuable assets in the Caucasus.”
Local media in Georgia reported “active activity by Russian special forces” in the border area near the time of the crash. The investigation is currently trying to identify satellite images of the crash site to see if there are any signs of fire or scattered debris that would indicate an explosion in the air rather than a ground collision.
To sum up the situation: The Turkish silence stems from their understanding that Russia “took off the gloves.”
If it is officially confirmed that Russia caused the downing of the plane that killed senior intelligence officers, Erdogan will be forced to respond militarily – something he is trying to avoid at all costs, lest he be drawn into an all-out campaign against Russia.
It seems that in the intelligence community in Turkey and in groups associated with military veterans, names are whispered with great care.
Below is a summary of the information circulating in closed forums and initial reports:
1. Names that appeared in unofficial publications
According to sources close to opposition parties in Turkey and Turkish reports, at least three senior officers from the SAT (Turkish Naval Command) and the OKK (Special Forces Command) were on board the plane. The name mentioned was Colonel (Albay) M.K. (full name redacted in most forums), who is considered one of Turkey’s leading experts in the field of logistics coordination in the Caucasus region. He was allegedly accompanied by two officers with the rank of Lieutenant Colonel (Yarbay) from the MIT operational department.
2. Nature of the mission:
The “Zangezur Corridor” and
the reports about the Black Sea indicate that the delegation was not on its way for a routine exercise. The officers were supposed to meet with their counterparts from Georgia and Azerbaijan to discuss the security of oil and gas pipelines and land corridors (Zangezur Corridor), in response to growing Russian threats in the region. The fact that naval commandos (SAT) were present raises suspicions that they were also coordinating the protection of assets in the Black Sea – a fact that strengthens the Russian motive to strike them.
3. Quiet funerals
A clear sign of the secrecy of the dead is the limited reporting of funerals. In Turkey, when senior intelligence officers are killed on sensitive missions, the country often avoids mass military funerals with media coverage, so as not to reveal the nature of the activity.
In Turkey, there have been reports of unusual movement of government vehicles at military cemeteries in Ankara and Izmir in the last two days, without any official announcements from the Ministry of Defense.
4. The Russian Connection
Turkish security forums indicate that the Turkish plane was shot down or disrupted precisely at the point where there is a “black hole” of radar coverage, which is often exploited by Russian Krasukha-4 electronic warfare systems located at bases in Georgia (in separatist areas).
What is the next step? Erdogan’s silence is the silence “before the storm”.
If such high-ranking officers were indeed killed by a Russian action (even if it is “quiet”), Turkey will have to pay a price.
The Turkish response will not necessarily be overt military, but similar “accidents” that will happen to Russian interests in Syria or Libya in the near future.
