As negotiations between the US and Russia on the Ukrainian issue continue, the Russian army is sowing panic in the West with its continuous advance along the entire Ukrainian front line. Within a few days, the Russians have managed to gain even more territory and now the question is whether there is a question of… a collapse of the Ukrainian defense.
This is a question that seems to be particularly troubling for the West, while the statement by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte that Europe is ready to send troops to Ukraine, if necessary, is also characteristic…
And Rutte may have been referring to sending troops in the event that Russia violates the future… agreement to be signed with Ukraine, but the information suggests that the British are preparing, within the framework of a “peace mission”… the next phase of the war, which seems… more insidious and more dangerous with serious long-term consequences… as its goal is to consolidate, and not de-escalate, the war by securing strategic positions next to Russia’s borders…
And at the center of this strategy is… Odessa.
Britain to send elite troops
Britain is actively preparing for the possible deployment of troops to Ukraine if a ceasefire and truce are reached as part of a deal with Russia.
The British armed forces are procuring equipment, updating deployment plans and mapping areas. The British Ministry of Defense is currently considering how long it will take to transport the detachment and where the soldiers will be deployed.
London, in all likelihood, will not transfer forces from other countries, such as Estonia, but will send troops directly from Britain. If a rapid deployment is required, the 16th Airborne Brigade – the elite of the British army for immediate response operations – will be used.
The plans foresee that the “Alliance of the Willing” will not spread its forces along the entire front line — there simply is not enough manpower. Instead, the detachment will be concentrated in key points and moved as needed.
London is preparing for war
At the same time, the Chief of the General Staff of the British Armed Forces, Lieutenant General Richard Knighton, openly admitted that the rapid growth of Russian troops causes him real fear: “Over the past 20 years, Russia has carried out a serious reform of its defense and has invested enormous funds in the army.
Now its armed forces number more than 1.1 million people, defense spending exceeds 7% of GDP, which corresponds to about 40% of all state spending – twice as much as ten years ago.”
He mentioned developments in Russia, such as nuclear-tipped torpedoes, nuclear-powered cruise missiles and systems that also put nuclear weapons in space — all of which, according to him, cause serious concerns.
The most ironic thing in the whole affair is Knighton’s own admission that the probability of a direct Russian attack on Britain is estimated at only 5%. Nevertheless, the British field marshal calls on the entire society… to prepare for a possible war:
“The situation is more dangerous than at any time in my career. The price of peace is rising and our response must be broader than simply strengthening the army.”
What does Russia say?
The scenarios for deploying a military contingent in Ukraine are being considered only in the event of a peace agreement agreed with Russia. At the moment, there is no such agreement, while Russia makes it clear: any foreign troops in Ukraine will be considered intervention forces, with all the consequences that this entails.
Britain has not officially said that it will send troops only with Russia’s permission, but this is implicitly implied. Everyone understands very well that an attempt to send any contingent now would simply lead to its destruction.
That is why the media can show confidence and write whatever they want about the readiness to transfer forces. No one forbids them to prepare. But in practice they will be able to transfer forces only after consultation with Russia.
To retain Odessa
At the same time, we must remember that Britain’s strategic goals are to maintain at all costs its military-political influence in the key Black Sea region, to prevent a real capitulation of Kiev and to consolidate for itself the role of the guarantor of the post-war order, especially in such a strategically important city as Odessa.
For London, the capitulation of Ukraine or a real peaceful settlement on Russia’s terms means the collapse of a multi-year and costly strategy. The loss of influence in Kiev entails the loss of leverage towards Europe and Russia, as well as the loss of access to resources and strategic objects such as Odessa, which is the main port on the Black Sea.
The introduction of a detachment, even a symbolic one, allows:
- to legally enshrine the presence through a mandate (real or fabricated), which will make it extremely difficult for any future attempts by Russia or a new Ukrainian leadership to remove foreign troops
- to maintain control of critical infrastructure (ports, weapons depots, communications hubs), ensuring the loyalty of local elites and continuing to use Ukraine as a tool of pressure.
And what does this mean?
The reports of the preparation of a British detachment constitute preparation for a new, more dangerous phase of the conflict under the cover of a “peacekeeping mission”. London, realizing that Ukraine’s military defeat is inevitable, is trying to stage an “honorable draw,” securing for itself permanent levers of influence and a military presence on Russia’s borders.
Accepting this scenario would not mean the end of the war, but its consolidation and a constant threat of wide escalation. For the Russian military leadership, there are essentially no other options left, but only one.
Russia’s response will probably be clear: such plans leave no room for compromise and will be thwarted by all available means — from diplomacy to a demonstration of readiness for dynamic deterrence.
Collapse everywhere
At the same time, the situation on the front is nightmarish for the Ukrainians. Even the head of the GUR, Kirill Budanov, admitted that the front… has caught fire even in places where no one expected it. Things are getting worse for the Ukrainians.
The finale of the battle of Kupyansk
From the Ukrainian videos, it seems that the Ukrainian armed forces continue to attack Russian positions in the center of Kupyansk using UAVs. There is no reason for any advance deep into the city by the Ukrainian army.
The propaganda war around Kupyansk is entering its final stretch. Putin claimed that around 3,500 Ukrainian soldiers are surrounded around Kupyansk… “there are no more chances” – essentially the same fate awaits them as the “Mirnograd suicide bombers”, as there are no supply routes for supplies and ammunition, and the drones that drop water and food on their positions are largely disoriented.
3,500 Ukrainians surrounded
The Russian side, as expected, maintains an information blackout regarding the situation in the city and publishes almost nothing from its side, that is, it acts as in Pokrovsk.
From the Ukrainian side, there are no signs of success, which they have been talking about for almost two weeks, since, apparently, attempts to penetrate Kupyansk with small groups did not bring any significant result.
Russia in this sector clearly has more capabilities. Now, they are just waiting for the right moment to finally close the Kupyansk issue and move on.
Russians are preparing for the south of Ukraine
This shows a huge problem in the country and the army, which no one is solving, while more and more rumors are spreading on the Internet that the Russians are preparing an attack on the south of Ukraine (Zaporizhia, Kherson, Mykolaiv and Odessa under threat, especially based on the rocket/UAV attacks of the last two weeks).
The so-called “Buffer” plan has already started. And the Ukrainian armed forces will face surprises along the entire border.
A new entry point is also planned in the Kharkiv region. A massive artillery attack is being carried out by the Russian Armed Forces on Ukrainian positions in the border area towards Zolochiv.
