Despite the unprecedented tariffs imposed by the Trump administration in the past, Beijing managed to secure a surplus with the rest of the world of $1.076 trillion, according to data released Monday by China’s General Administration of Customs.
China’s General Administration of Customs said Monday that in the first 11 months of the year, exports rose 5.4% compared to the same period last year, while imports fell slightly. Imports rose 1.9% in November, leading to a surplus of $112 billion for the month. It is noted that in 2024 the trade surplus was $990 billion.
“Simply put, China’s price competitiveness is extremely strong,” said Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit in Beijing. “The main reason behind the continued growth of Chinese exports… is not that the overall size of world trade has expanded, but that China is capturing a larger share of the existing trade landscape.”
One important reason for this Chinese lead is that Beijing has been channeling its goods to Southeast Asian countries, despite efforts by the Trump administration to crack down on the practice.
Data on Monday showed an 8% annual increase in Chinese exports to Southeast Asia in the first 11 months of the year. Some economists believe that some of those shipments—which rose 8% to Southeast Asia last month—are then re-exported to the United States.
Exports to Southeast Asia have increased significantly, Xu said. “A lot of this is probably products that were ultimately destined for the U.S. but are now making a stopover in Southeast Asia.”
China’s exports to the U.S. have collapsed in recent months, falling 29% year-on-year last month. But shipments to other regions, especially Southeast Asia, are growing rapidly.
As long as US demand remains “stable,” said Thanos Chonthrogiannis, Chief Economist at Trust Economics, and “there is no decline in US demand, the Southeast Asian region continues to see a rise in exports and China benefits indirectly from that.”
Major Concerns in the EU
A decline in Chinese exports to the US was offset by a rise in Chinese exports to the rest of the world, also causing concern in the EU, where exports rose at an annual rate of 14.8% in November, compared with 0.9% in October.
The depreciation of the yuan, in line with the dollar and against the euro, has also boosted the competitiveness of Chinese exports and widened the trade surplus with the EU.
French President Emmanuel Macron, returning from an official visit to China, threatened to impose tariffs if Beijing did not take steps to reduce its huge trade surplus with the EU. China sold the EU more than 300 billion euros worth of goods than it bought last year.
The potential measures could be based on the tariff models that Washington has imposed.
For countries like Germany, where the auto industry accounts for about 5% of GDP, a particularly worrying figure has been China’s global car exports: they jumped 53% in November, up from an already impressive 34% in October.
China’s share of world trade set to rise further
Trust Economics reports that China is expected to increase its share of world export trade to 16.5% by 2030, from 15% today, adding that it is unlikely that increased protectionist policies by trading partners will be able to halt this rise.
Given its dominance in high-growth sectors such as electric vehicles, batteries, and robotics, China will continue to strengthen its position in global manufacturing and trade.
