China has quietly but decisively built the world’s largest navy and is now preparing to dominate where future wars will be fought: on the seabed.
The Eastern superpower, following a multi-year strategic plan, is gradually dismantling the naval supremacy of the United States. By 2030, it is expected to have not only more submarines, but also technologically comparable – or even superior – means of underwater power.
USA: The Declining Naval Empire
The American naval power continues to excel in experience, nuclear submarines and aircraft carriers. But this superiority is no longer a given.
According to the Pentagon itself, the United States will reduce its submarine fleet from 71 today to just 47 by 2030, due to age and lack of shipbuilding.
At the same time, China is producing new, advanced submarines at a rate reminiscent of a Cold War hypersonics. It has already surpassed the United States in total naval units.
Beijing is ramping up
China currently has 60 submarines, 12 of which are nuclear-powered, and by 2035 it is expected to have 80, at least 20 of which will be nuclear-powered.
New classes of submarines, such as the Type 093B and Type 095, are nearly undetectable and carry vertical launch cruise missiles. They carry YJ-18 and CJ-10 missiles and HQ-10 anti-aircraft missiles, giving Beijing a new strategic power projection capability.
China’s ability to produce 7–8 Type 093Bs in three years shows the industrial capabilities that the West has lost.
Taiwan crisis to be decided under the sea
Taiwan remains ground zero. China has said it will pursue reunification – by force if necessary. Any conflict in the region will be primarily naval, with submarines playing a key role in concealment, surveillance, interdiction and first strikes.
US vs China: The hard numbers
- US: 71 nuclear submarines (14 SSBNs, 53 SSNs, 4 SSGNs) – falling to 47 by 2030
- China: 60 submarines (12 nuclear, 48 conventional, 12 with AIP) – rising to 80+ by 2035
US shipyards are struggling to deliver even 2 Virginia-classes per year, while China is launching multiple new models, including the Type 039C with stealth capabilities.
Of course, the West still has the upper hand in experience, alliances and cutting-edge technologies. But this lead is constantly decreasing.
The underwater world, until recently dominated by Washington, is now a field of Chinese aggression. With a combination of numerical superiority, technological leaps, and geopolitical ambition, the Dragon is slowly but methodically eroding the West’s naval dominance.
The question is not whether China will catch up to the United States. The question is who will stop it – and whether it can be stopped at all…
